The Sentinel-1 constellation provides an effective new radar instrument with a short revisit time of six days for the monitoring of intensive mining surface deformations. Our goal is to investigate in detail and to bring new comprehension of the mine life cycle. The dynamics of mining, especially in the case of horizontally evolving longwall technology, exhibit rapid surface changes. We use the classical approach of differential radar interferometry (DInSAR) with short temporal baselines (six days), which results in deformation maps with a low decorrelation between the satellite images. For the same time intervals, we compare the radar results with prediction models based on the Knothe–Budryk theory for mining subsidence. The validation of the results with ground levelling measurements reveals a high level of resemblance of the DInSAR subsidence maps (−0.04 m bias with respect to the levelling). On the other hand, aside from the explicable exaggeration, the location of the subsidence trough needs improvement in the forecasted deformations (0.2 km shift in location, a deformation velocity four times higher than in DInSAR). In addition, a time lag between DInSAR (compatible with extraction) and prediction is revealed. The model improvement can be achieved by including the DInSAR results in the elaboration of the model parameters.

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(2020) Applying human mobility and water consumption data for short-term water demand forecasting using classical and machine learning models,

Nowcasting of severe weather events and summer storms, in particular, are intensively studied as they have great potential for large economic and societal losses. Use of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations for weather nowcasting has been investigated in various regions. However, combining the vertically integrated water vapour (IWV) with vertical profiles of wet refractivity derived from GNSS tomography has not been exploited for short-range forecasts of storms. In this study, we introduce a methodology to use the synergy of IWV and tomography-based vertical profiles to predict 0–2 h of storms using a machine learning approach for Poland. Moreover, we present an analysis of the importance of features that take part in the prediction process. The accuracy of the model reached over 87%, and the precision of prediction was about 30%. The results show that wet refractivity below 6 km and IWV on the west of the storm are among the significant parameters with potential for predicting storm location. The analysis of IWV demonstrated a correlation between IWV changes and storm occurrence.

Predictability of human movement is a theoretical upper bound for the accuracy of movement prediction models, which serves as a reference value showing how regular a dataset is and to what extent mobility can be predicted. Over the years, the predictability of various human mobility datasets was found to vary when estimated for differently processed datasets. Although attempts at the explanation of this variability have been made, the extent of these experiments was limited. In this study, we use high-precision movement trajectories of individuals to analyse how the way we represent the movement impacts its predictability and thus, the outcomes of analyses made on these data. We adopt a number of methods used in the last 11 years of research on human mobility and apply them to a wide range of spatio-temporal data scales, thoroughly analysing changes in predictability and produced data. We find that spatio-temporal resolution and data processing methods have a large impact on the predictability as well as geometrical and numerical properties of human mobility data, and we present their nonlinear dependencies.