Empirical moments of asset prices and exchange rates imply that pricing kernels have to be almost perfectly correlated across countries. If they are not, observed real exchange rates are too smooth to be consistent with high Sharpe ratios in asset markets. However, the crosscountry correlation of macro fundamentals is far from perfect. We reconcile these empirical facts in a two-country stochastic growth model with heterogeneous trading technologies for households and a home bias in consumption. In our model, only a small fraction of households actively participate in international risk sharing by frequently trading domestic and foreign equities. These active traders, who induce high cross-country correlation to the pricing kernels, are the marginal investors in foreign exchange markets. In a calibrated version of our model, we show that this mechanism can quantitatively account for the excess smoothness of exchange rates in the presence of highly volatile pricing kernels and weakly correlated macro fundamentals.JEL codes: G15, G12, F31, F10.
Our paper investigates whether the valuation effect caused by a large risk premium and a low risk-free rate can help to explain the enormous US current account and trade deficit observed in the past decade. To answer this question, we set up an endowment growth model in which investors are endowed with heterogeneous trading technologies. In our model, the average US investors load up more aggregate risk by investing in a risky asset abroad and issuing a risk-free asset. Thanks to the large risk premium as well as the low risk-free rate, the US can sustain a long-run trade deficit even as a debtor country. Quantitatively, we find that the valuation effect caused solely by the high risk premium and the low risk-free rate in our model, which is calibrated to match the external assets and liabilities of US economy, can account for more than half of the observed trade deficit and current account deficit. Our results suggest that the current US trade deficit might not necessarily lead to net export increases or dollar depreciation in the future.
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Asian Development Bank InstituteThe Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI's working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. ADBI encourages readers to post their comments on the main page for each working paper (given in the citation below). Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, ADB, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.Working papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized and considered published.Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, JapanTel:+81-3-3593-5500 Fax:+81-3-3593-5571 URL:www.adbi.org E-mail: info@adbi.org AbstractThis paper explores the long-term challenges for trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The region has emerged as an important production base for multinational corporations by joining East Asia's supply chains. While proceeding to establish the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by the end of 2015, ASEAN has also forged five major free trade agreements (FTAs) with its dialogue partners (People's Republic of China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Australia-New Zealand) and is currently negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). In addition, four ASEAN member states are working on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Econometric evidence suggests that (i) trade flows and inward FDI mutually reinforce each other, i.e., an increase in trade flows stimulates inward FDI and vice versa; (ii) a larger market attracts more inward FDI; (iii) FTAs tend to help stimulate inward FDI; and (iv) strong institutions, good physical infrastructure, and low costs of doing business are critical in boosting inward FDI. The paper concludes that in the long run ASEAN should aim to further integrate itself with the rest of Asia and the world (through a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific and an Asia-...
This paper explores the long-term challenges for economic integration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) through trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). The region has emerged as an important production base for global multinational corporations by joining East Asia’s supply chains. While proceeding to establish the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by the end of 2015, ASEAN has also forged five major free trade agreements (FTAs) with its dialogue partners (China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Australia–New Zealand) and is currently negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. In addition, four ASEAN member states have completed Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. Econometric evidence suggests that (i) trade flows and inward FDI mutually reinforce each other, i.e., an increase in trade flows stimulates inward FDI and vice versa; (ii) a larger market tends to attract more inward FDI; (iii) FTAs tend to help stimulate inward FDI; and (iv) strong institutions, good physical infrastructure, and low costs of doing business are critical in boosting inward FDI. The paper suggests that in the long run it is ASEAN’s interest to further integrate itself with the rest of Asia and the world (through a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific and an Asia–Europe FTA), while substantially deepening its internal integration (by moving from the AEC to a customs and economic union) and thereby maintaining ASEAN centrality.
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