The closure fracture phenomenon increases the complexity of well testing and reduces the accuracy of productivity forecasts when tight oil reservoirs are exploited. However, most existing productivity models tend to ignore this. Therefore, a productivity prediction model for multi-fractured horizontal wells in tight oil reservoirs considering fracture closure has been developed by considering the stress sensitivity in the formation and combining the physical parameters of actual production. The model is solved by the Laplace transform, perturbation transform, Pedrosa transform, and Stehfest numerical inversion. Drawing productivity impact curves and discussing productivity influence factors based on the model results from this study show that the model is reasonable. In the actual production process, the hydraulic fracture parameter values are not as high as possible, and they have a reasonable range of values. The fracture closure pressure has a significant impact on the production of tight oil reservoirs. The higher the fracture closure pressure is, the greater the fracture conductivity decreases sharply, and the larger the proppant elastic modulus is, the stronger the fracture conductivity. The influence of fracture conductivity on the production in tight oil reservoirs has an obvious point, and when the value is less than the point, the production effect is good. Improved production can be achieved by balancing the relationship between fracture parameters. The findings of this study can help to better understand the influence of fracture parameters on productivity and contribute to increasing well production and improved development of tight oil reservoirs.