Researchers uncover a large variation in the lifetime migratory decisions of young white storks.

Migrant birds face a number of threats throughout their annual cycle, including persecution, collision with energy infrastructure, and habitat and climate change. A key challenge for the conservation of migrants is the identification of important habitat, including migratory concentration areas, because species survival rates may be determined by events in geographically very limited areas. Remote‐tracking technology is facilitating the identification of such critical habitat, although the strategic identification of important sites and incorporation of such knowledge in conservation planning remains limited. We tracked 45 individuals of an endangered, soaring migrant (Egyptian vulture Neophron percnopterus), over 75 complete migrations that traversed three continents along the Red Sea Flyway. We summarize and contextualize migration statistics by season and age class, including migration start, midpoint, and end dates, as well as linear and cumulative migration distance, migration duration and speed, and route straightness. Then, using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models, we quantified space use to identify the most important migratory bottlenecks and high‐use areas on the flyway. These areas each accounted for < 5% of the overall movement range of the tracked birds, yet > 20% of all tracks passed through bottlenecks, and > 50% of the overall vulture time spent on migration fell within high‐use areas. The most important sites were located at the southeastern Red Sea coast and Bab‐el‐Mandeb Strait (Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Djibouti), the Suez Canal zone (Egypt), and the Gulf of Iskenderun (Turkey). Discouragingly however, none of the area within the major migratory bottlenecks was protected and < 13% of the high‐use areas were protected. This demonstrates a very concerning gap in the protected area network for migratory soaring birds along the Red Sea Flyway. Because reducing threats at migratory concentrations can be a very efficient approach to protect populations, our work provides clear guidelines where conservation investment is urgently needed to benefit as many as 35 migratory soaring‐bird species that regularly use the Red Sea Flyway.

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas (EBBA1) and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas (EBBA2). Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km/year towards the north (5% Northeast, 45% North, and 40% Northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km/year. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to “climate debt. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by global change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, elevation, and temperature gradients, can influence a community's ability to shift. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in global change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980's and their nearest compositional equivalent in the 2010’s and modelled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coasts and elevation having the strongest influence. Combining ecological barriers and community shift projections can identify ecological corridors that facilitate shifts of species and communities under global change.

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