Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with a wide distribution in the Americas. Brazil is an endemic country and present cases in all states. This study aimed to describe the occurrence, the underlying clinical and epidemiological factors, and the correlation of climatic variables with the frequency of reported CL cases in the municipality of Caxias, state of Maranhão, Brazil. This is a retrospective and descriptive epidemiological study based on data extracted from the Brazilian Information System of Diseases Notification, from 2007 to 2017. Maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative air humidity data were provided by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. A total of 201 reported autochthonous CL cases were analyzed. The predominance of cases was observed in males (70.1%). The age range between 31 and 60 years old was the most affected, with 96 cases (47.9%). Of the total number of registered cases, 38.8% of the affected individuals were engaged in agriculture-related activities. The georeferenced distribution revealed the heterogeneity of disease occurrence, with cases concentrated in the Western and Southern regions of the municipality. An association was detected between relative air humidity (monthly mean) and the number of CL cases per month (p = 0.04). CL continues to be a concerning public health issue in Caxias. In this context, there is a pressing need to strengthen measures of prevention and control of the disease through the network of health services of the municipality, considering local and regional particularities.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

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Objetivo: Caracterizar a dinâmica temporal, espacial e os fatores clínico-epidemiológicos relacionados à ocorrência da coinfecção leishmaniose tegumentar americana/HIV no Maranhão. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo ecológico com análise espacial e temporal dos casos de coinfecção leishmaniose tegumentar americana/HIV. Foram coletados os casos notificados no período de 2008 a 2017, segundo as variáveis sociodemográficas, clínicas e laboratoriais. Os dados foram tabulados utilizando-se o software Statistical Package Social Science versão 18. Para a distribuição espacial dos casos utilizou-se o software QGIS versão 2.14.9. Resultados: No período de 2008 a 2017, foram notificados 120 casos de coinfecção. O maior número ocorreu em indivíduos do sexo masculino (76,7%), com 31 a 45 anos (33,3%), que residiam em zona urbana (50,8%) e tinham 1 a 4 anos de estudos (31,7%). A forma clínica cutânea foi predominante (93,3%). A droga leishmanicida mais utilizada foi o antimonial pentavalente (89,2%). São Luís, Imperatriz, Centro do Guilherme e Açailândia foram os municípios com maiores registros de casos de coinfecção. Conclusão: A coinfecção leishmaniose tegumentar americana/HIV no Maranhão tem ocorrência heterogênea, com expressivo número de casos registrados. Tal fato reflete a importância do fortalecimento de medidas proativas no contexto da assistência à saúde.

This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of leishmaniases, and contribute to the knowledge of their epidemiological dynamics from 2007 to 2017 in the municipality of Caxias, Maranhão, Northeast Brazil. Data on American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) and human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) were obtained in the Epidemiological Surveillance Sector of Caxias, while data on canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) were obtained in the Zoonoses Surveillance Unit. For data analysis and spatial representation of leishmaniasis cases, the geoprocessing of the data was performed, and the geometric features of the state of Maranhão, Caxias, and the disease registration sites were obtained from the shapefile database of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Geostatistics was used to create maps based on the Kernel density method, starting from the points, producing a raster file for each case with several data frames, allowing the instantaneous comparison of the phenomena. During the study period, ATL, HVL, and CVL were reported in Caxias, accounting for 114,304 and 8,498 cases, respectively. The geoprocessing analysis showed that leishmaniasis is widely distributed in the urban area of Caxias. However, there are risk areas for the transmission of these diseases to humans and dogs, associated with deforestation and urban expansion, and may vary over time. Preventive measures must focus on risk areas, including conservation efforts and urban planning, in order to reduce the transmission of leishmaniases.