Firm turnover and growth recorded in administrative data sets differ from underlying firm dynamics. By tracing the employment history of the workforce of new and disappearing administrative firm identifiers, we can accurately identify de novo entrants and true economic exits, even when firms change identifier, merge, or split-up. For a well-defined group of new firms entering the Belgian economy between 2004 and 2011, we find highly regular post-entry employment dynamics in spite of the volatile macroeconomic environment. Exit rates decrease with age and size. Surviving entrants record high employment growth that is monotonically decreasing with age in every size class. Most remarkably, we find that Gibrat's law is violated for very young firms. Conditional on age, the relationship between employment growth and current size is strongly and robustly positive. This pattern is obscured, or even reversed, when administrative entrants and exits are taken at face value. De novo entrants' contribution to job creation is relatively small and not very persistent, in particular for (the large majority of) new firms that enter with fewer than five employees. The authors are grateful to the Belgian National Social Security Office (NSSO), in particular to Peter Vets, for providing the data and for helping to develop the employee flow record linking method; and to Statistics Belgium, in particular to Youri Baeyens and Antonio Fiordaliso, for linking the NSSO data to the Belgian Business Register and for providing firm record linkages created for the Eurostat Structural Business Statistics. Financial support from ERC grant No. 241127 and KU Leuven project financing is gratefully acknowledged.
We construct a comprehensive sample of takeovers in Belgium that shows they are remarkably common. Takeovers involve both small and large firms and, over a five‐year period, 17% of private sector employment. We estimate their impact on employment growth using a framework that explicitly takes into account that takeovers involve pairs of firms and that post‐merger outcomes are heterogeneous. The average merger temporarily reduces employment of the combined entity by −1.4%. Mergers likely to be motivated by market power show a stronger and permanent employment reduction of −14%, whereas those motivated by efficiency gains lead to employment expansions of +10%.
We construct a comprehensive sample of takeovers in Belgium that shows they are remarkably common. Takeovers involve both small and large firms and, over a five‐year period, 17% of private sector employment. We estimate their impact on employment growth using a framework that explicitly takes into account that takeovers involve pairs of firms and that post‐merger outcomes are heterogeneous. The average merger temporarily reduces employment of the combined entity by −1.4%. Mergers likely to be motivated by market power show a stronger and permanent employment reduction of −14%, whereas those motivated by efficiency gains lead to employment expansions of +10%.
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