ObjectivesPrediction of radiographic progression (RP) in early rheumatoid arthritis (eRA) would be very useful for optimal choice among available therapies. We evaluated a multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score, based on 12 serum biomarkers as a baseline predictor for 1-year RP in eRA.MethodsBaseline disease activity score based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR), disease activity score based on C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP), CRP, MBDA scores and DAS28-ESR at 3 months were analysed for 235 patients with eRA from the Swedish Farmacotherapy (SWEFOT) clinical trial. RP was defined as an increase in the Van der Heijde-modified Sharp score by more than five points over 1 year. Associations between baseline disease activity measures, the MBDA score, and 1-year RP were evaluated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression, adjusted for potential confounders.ResultsAmong 235 patients with eRA, 5 had low and 29 moderate MBDA scores at baseline. None of the former and only one of the latter group (3.4%) had RP during 1 year, while the proportion of patients with RP among those with high MBDA score was 20.9% (p=0.021). Among patients with low/moderate CRP, moderate DAS28-CRP or moderate DAS28-ESR at baseline, progression occurred in 14%, 15%, 14% and 15%, respectively. MBDA score was an independent predictor of RP as a continuous (OR=1.05, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.08) and dichotomised variable (high versus low/moderate, OR=3.86, 95% CI 1.04 to 14.26).ConclusionsIn patients with eRA, the MBDA score at baseline was a strong independent predictor of 1-year RP. These results suggest that when choosing initial treatment in eRA the MBDA test may be clinically useful to identify a subgroup of patients at low risk of RP.Trial registration numberWHO database at the Karolinska Institute: CT20080004; and clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00764725.

ObjectivesThe aim of this paper was to analyse the impact of obesity, in addition to known predictors, on disease outcome in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsBody mass index (BMI) was available in 260 patients from the Swedish pharmacotherapy trial (SWEFOT). Differences in disease activity (DAS28), functional impairment (HAQ), pain (Visual Analogue Scale, VAS-pain) and radiographic damage were evaluated over 24 months between BMI categories (obese BMI >30, n=43; overweight BMI=25–29.9, n=74; normal BMI <25, n=143) using non-parametric testing. Predictors of European League Against Rheumatism non-remission (DAS28 ≥2.6) at 24 months of follow-up were evaluated using binary univariate and multivariate logistic regression.ResultsObesity at baseline was associated with worse continuous-scale clinical outcomes over 24 months (DAS28, HAQ and VAS-pain at last visit: obese vs normal: p<0.001; obese vs overweight: p<0.05). Furthermore, obese patients compared with non-obese patients had significantly greater odds of non-remission at 24 months (adjusted OR (aOR) 5.2; 95% CI 1.8 to 15.2). Other independent predictors were female sex (aOR 2.6; 95% CI 1.1 to 5.8), current smoking (aOR 2.6; 95% CI 1.1 to 6.3) and HAQ (per-unit increase, aOR 1.9; 95% CI 1.1 to 3.4). The pattern was similar among seropositive and seronegative patients; and in the subgroups of methotrexate responders and patients randomised at 3 months to add-on of sulfasalazine+hydroxychloroquine, although not significant with add-on of infliximab. Obesity had no independent association to radiographic progression.ConclusionsIn this early RA trial reflecting today’s standard treatment, obesity, in addition to sex, smoking and functional impairment strongly lowered the chance of attaining good clinical outcomes, including remission, today’s treatment goal. This highlights the importance of considering lifestyle modification as one of the cornerstones of RA care.Trial registration numberNCT00764725; Post-results. WHO database at the Karolinska University Hospital: CT20080004.

ObjectiveTo investigate whether the Multi‐Biomarker Disease Activity (MBDA) score predicts optimal add‐on treatment in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who were inadequate responders to MTX (MTX‐IRs).MethodsWe analyzed data from 157 MTX‐IRs (with a Disease Activity Score using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate [DAS28‐ESR] >3.2) from the Swedish Pharmacotherapy (SWEFOT) trial who were randomized to receive triple therapy (MTX plus sulfasalazine plus hydroxychloroquine) versus MTX plus infliximab. The MBDA score as a predictor of the subsequent DAS28‐based response to each second‐line treatment was analyzed at randomization with the Breslow‐Day test for 2 × 2 groups, using both validated categories (low [<30], moderate [30–44], and high [>44]) and dichotomized categories (lower [≤38] versus higher [>38]).ResultsAmong the 157 patients, 12% had a low MBDA score, 32% moderate, and 56% high. Of those with a low MBDA score, 88% responded to subsequent triple therapy, and 18% responded to MTX plus infliximab (P = 0.006); for those with a high MBDA score, the response rates were 35% and 58%, respectively (P = 0.040). When using 38 as a cutoff for the MBDA score (29% patients with lower scores versus 71% with higher scores), the differential associations with response to triple therapy versus MTX plus infliximab were 79% versus 44% and 36% versus 58%, respectively (P = 0.001). Clinical and inflammatory markers had poorer predictive capacity for response to triple therapy or MTX plus infliximab.ConclusionIn patients with RA who had an inadequate response to MTX, the MBDA score categories were differentially associated with response to subsequent therapies. Thus, patients with post‐MTX biochemical improvements (lower MBDA scores) were more likely to respond to triple therapy than to MTX plus infliximab. If confirmed, these results may help to improve treatment in RA.