A main challenge associated with macro ecological gradients such as the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is that proxies of potential underlying processes are often correlated at large scales. One way to reliably identify contributing processes is to show that they can lead to similar responses at local scales. Using a set of invertebrate communities from rock pool clusters along a latitudinal gradient in Australia, we investigated the importance of hydrological stability for explaining both local and regional diversity patterns in this habitat. Results show that, at both local and regional scales, habitat stability in terms of the frequency and length of inundations was strongly correlated to local alpha diversity in individual pools and to gamma diversity at the level of pool clusters. Additionally, partitioning beta diversity into components of nestedness and species turnover revealed that communities in unstable habitats were nested subsets of communities in more stable habitats. Overall, this study provides convincing mechanistic support for the climate stability hypothesis as a potential explanation for the LDG in this system. Results also indicate that when there is enough time for dispersal and colonization, regional processes can be relatively unimportant compared to local processes to explain large scale diversity patterns.

1. Future moderate changes in evaporation and precipitation regimes could have pronounced effects on zooplankton populations in small and temporary aquatic habitats, by causing higher salinity and a shorter wet phase and by reducing passive dispersal via hydrological connections between pools and increasing it by exposing propagules to the wind. 2. Using a hydrological model, we simulated various climate change scenarios in a natural cluster of temporary rock pools in South Africa. 3. In our simulations, a shift towards a drier climate was associated with reduced permanence and increased conductivity, resulting in a lower percentage of inundations sufficient for the hatching, growth and reproduction of aquatic organisms (up to a 21% decline for a fairy shrimp). Connections between pools by overflowing occurred less frequently (by up to 28%). However, more frequent desiccation events (by up to 15%) led to increased exposure of dormant propagules to wind, possibly promoting dispersal within the pool cluster but also leading to losses from the propagule bank. 4. Our results suggest that environmental change might not only affect local (within-pool) selection pressures but also regional dynamics in rock pool metapopulations and communities.

Climate change does affect not only average rainfall and temperature but also their variation, which can reduce the predictability of suitable conditions for growth and reproduction. This situation is problematic for inhabitants of temporary waters whose reproductive success depends on rainfall and evaporation that determine the length of the aquatic phase. For organisms with long-lived dormant life stages, bet hedging models suggest that a fraction of these should stay dormant during each growing season to buffer against the probability of total reproductive failure in variable environments. Thus far, however, little empirical evidence supports this prediction in aquatic organisms. We study geographic variation in delayed hatching of dormant eggs in natural populations of two crustaceans, Branchinella longirostris and Paralimnadia badia, that occur in temporary rock pools along a 725 km latitudinal aridity gradient in Western Australia. Consistent with bet hedging theory, populations of both species were characterised by delayed hatching under common garden conditions and hatching fractions decreased towards the drier end of the gradient where the probability of reproductive success was shown to be lower. This decrease was most pronounced in the species with the longer maturation time, presumably because it is more sensitive to the higher prevalence of short inundations. Overall, these findings illustrate that regional variation in climate can be reflected in differential investment in bet hedging and hints at a higher importance of delayed hatching to persist when the climate becomes harsher. Such strategies could become exceedingly relevant as determinants of vulnerability under climate change.

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