This paper presents a new approach to integrated security and dependability evaluation, which is based on stochastic modeling techniques. Our proposal aims to provide operational measures of the trustworthiness of a system, regardless if the underlying failure cause is intentional or not. By viewing system states as elements in a stochastic game, we can compute the probabilities of expected attacker behavior, and thereby be able to model attacks as transitions between system states. The proposed game model is based on a reward- and cost concept. A section of the paper is devoted to the demonstration of how the expected attacker behavior is affected by the parameters of the game. Our model opens up for use of traditional Markov analysis to make new types of probabilistic predictions for a system, such as its expected time to security failure.

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Security evaluation according to ISO 15408 (Common Criteria) is a resource and time demanding activity, as well as being costly. For this reason, only few companies take their products through a Common Criteria evaluation. To support security evaluation, the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) has developed a threat, vulnerability, risk analysis (eTVRA) method for the Telecommunication (Telco) domain. eTVRA builds on the security risk management methodology CORAS and is structured in such a way that it provides output that can be directly fed into a Common Criteria security evaluation.In this paper, we evaluate the time and resource efficiency of parts of eTVRA and the quality of the result produced by following eTVRA compared to a more pragmatic approach (Protection Profile-based checklists). We use both approaches to identify and analyze risks of a new SIM card currently under joint development by a small hardware company and a large Telco provider.