With increasing urbanization vector-borne diseases are quickly developing in cities, and urban control strategies are needed. If streets are shown to be barriers to disease vectors, city blocks could be used as a convenient and relevant spatial unit of study and control. Unfortunately, existing spatial analysis tools do not allow for assessment of the impact of an urban grid on the presence of disease agents. Here, we first propose a method to test for the significance of the impact of streets on vector infestation based on a decomposition of Moran's spatial autocorrelation index; and second, develop a Gaussian Field Latent Class model to finely describe the effect of streets while controlling for cofactors and imperfect detection of vectors. We apply these methods to cross-sectional data of infestation by the Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans in the city of Arequipa, Peru. Our Moran's decomposition test reveals that the distribution of T. infestans in this urban environment is significantly constrained by streets (p<0.05). With the Gaussian Field Latent Class model we confirm that streets provide a barrier against infestation and further show that greater than 90% of the spatial component of the probability of vector presence is explained by the correlation among houses within city blocks. The city block is thus likely to be an appropriate spatial unit to describe and control T. infestans in an urban context. Characteristics of the urban grid can influence the spatial dynamics of vector borne disease and should be considered when designing public health policies.

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BACKGROUND Child immunizations are one of the most successful public health interventions of the past century. Still, parental vaccine hesitancy is widespread and increasing. One manifestation of this are rising rates of nonmedical or “personal beliefs” exemptions (PBEs) from school-entry immunization mandates. Exemptions have been shown to be associated with increased risk of disease outbreak, but the strength of this association depends critically on the true vaccination status of exempted children, which has not been assessed. OBJECTIVE To estimate the true measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination status of children with PBEs. METHODS We use administrative data collected by the California Department of Public Health in 2009 and imputation to estimate the MMR vaccination status of children with PBEs under varying scenarios. RESULTS Results from 2009 surveillance data indicate MMR1/MMR2 coverage of 18–47% among children with PBEs at typical schools and 11–34% among children with PBEs at schools with high PBE rates. Imputation scenarios point to much higher coverage (64–92% for MMR1 and 25–58% for MMR2 at typical schools; 49–90% for MMR1 and 16–63% for MMR2 at high PBE schools) but still below levels needed to maintain herd immunity against measles. CONCLUSIONS These coverage estimates suggest that prior analyses of the relative risk of measles associated with vaccine refusal underestimate that risk by an order of magnitude of 2–10 times.

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