No abstract

Life satisfaction is an important indicator of successful development. However, adolescents' life satisfaction tends to be relatively unsteady, and environmental influences play a critical role in shaping life satisfaction among adolescents in the transition to young adulthood. Given the paramount importance that education plays in adolescents' lives, adolescents' life satisfaction may vary as a function of school-related stress experience. At the same time, coping resources may help reduce adverse effects of stress on life satisfaction. With this in mind, we examined whether, and to what extent, perceived stress in education and general self-efficacy (a resource that facilitates coping) affect the life satisfaction of adolescents in transition to young adulthood. We distinguished between baseline levels of stress and self-efficacy and within-person change in stress and self-efficacy to determine whether life satisfaction is sensitive to fluctuations in stress and self-efficacy when person-specific levels of stress and self-efficacy are taken into account. Estimating growth curve models on data from a panel study on the life trajectories of compulsory-school leavers (n = 5,126, 55.3% female), we found that baseline levels of stress and self-efficacy, as well as within-person change in stress and self-efficacy, affected adolescents' life satisfaction.Moreover, our results showed that baseline self-efficacy mitigated the negative effect of baseline stress on life satisfaction. These findings improve our understanding of two major psychological determinants of adolescents' life satisfaction and extend our knowledge of life satisfaction trajectories during the transition to young adulthood.

This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

Prior studies have noted several risk and protective factors for school dropout; however, only a few have examined longer-term vulnerabilities alongside temporary risk and protective factors. Consequently, we focused on the role that both stable and time-varying psychosocial risk and protective factors play in dropout intentions and actual dropout, using a 4-year longitudinal design. We investigated to what extent dropout intentions and dropout can be predicted by an interplay between negative life events, general self-efficacy, and perceived social support. We distinguished between time-averaged levels of selfefficacy and social support, and within-person change in self-efficacy and social support over time. This enabled us to establish whether dropout intentions and dropout were sensitive to fluctuations in perceived self-efficacy and social support over time when controlling for person-specific levels of these psychosocial resources. Calculating multilevel models with data from a prospective cohort study (N ϭ 4,956, 43% male), we found that negative life events were significantly associated with an increase in dropout intentions and the likelihood of school dropout. Furthermore, time-averaged levels of self-efficacy and social support, and a within-person (situational) increase in these characteristics relative to their time-averaged levels, were related to lower levels of dropout intentions but did not prevent dropout. The positive relationship between negative life events and dropout intentions was attenuated for individuals who perceived higher levels of self-efficacy than usual. Our findings suggest future research should further investigate time-averaged and situational psychosocial drivers of school dropout in combination. Educational Impact and Implications Statement This study indicates that the experience of negative life events is related to an increase in dropout intentions and the probability of actually dropping out of school or vocational training. Higher levels of both time-averaged and situational self-efficacy and social support are associated with lower levels of dropout intentions, and vice versa. Moreover, when young people feel more efficacious than usual, they are significantly less likely to think about quitting their school or vocational training even in the presence of negative life events. These findings suggest that dropout prevention programs might be more effective if they consider both time-invariant and time-varying social and psychological risk and protective factors.