We uncover stylized facts of commodity futures’ price and volatility dynamics in the post-financialization period and find a factor structure in daily commodity volatility that is much stronger than the factor structure in returns. The common factor in commodity volatility relates to stock market volatility as well as to the business cycle. Model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market were high during 2008–2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level, close to 0. While commodity markets appear segmented from the equity market when considering only returns, commodity volatility indicates a nontrivial degree of market integration.

Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during [2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013], we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period.We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity volatility indicates a nontrivial degree of market integration.

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Background Diabetes (DM) patients without coronary artery disease (CAD) by coronary angiography have a similar risk of myocardial infarction and cardiac death as non-DM patients without CAD. Yet, even with absence of CAD, patients with DM have higher mortality compared to non-DM patients. Aims To examine the underlying causes of death in patients undergoing coronary angiography depending on DM and CAD. Methods We included every patient with no previous history of CAD who underwent coronary angiography in Western Denmark between 2003–2016. Patients were stratified by DM and CAD and followed for a maximum of 10 years. We estimated the 10-year cumulative risk of all-cause death and cause-specific death. Causes of death were categorized as “cardiovascular”, “pulmonary”, “cancer”, “renal”, “bleeding-related”, and “other” based on ICD-10 codes listed as underlying causes of death obtained from death certificates. Deaths where DM was listed as the underlying cause of death (i.e. ICD-10 code DE1) were included in the category “other”. Results We included 132,432 patients, of whom 33% had neither DM nor CAD, 5% had DM only, 51% had CAD only, and 11% had both DM and CAD. Mean age was 64 years. Median follow-up was 6.3 year (inter-quartile range 3.8–10.0). During follow-up, 35,036 (26.5%) patients died. Patients with both DM and CAD had the highest 10-year mortality (47.4%, 95% CI 46.3–48.4), followed by CAD only (33.3%, 95% CI 32.8–33.7), DM only (30.7%, 95% CI 29.3–32.2), and patients with neither DM nor CAD (21.6%, 95% CI 21.1–22.1). The proportion of cardiovascular deaths were similar in patients with DM only (29.2%, 95% CI 27.0–31.5, Figure) and patients with neither DM nor CAD (29.7%, 95% CI 28.8–30.7). Patients with DM were more likely to die from causes categorized as “other” compared to patients with neither DM nor CAD [38.4% (95% CI 36.0–40.9) versus 30.2% (95% CI 29.3–31.2)]. Among patients with DM only, 43.7% of deaths classified as “other” were attributable to DM-related complications such as ketoacidosis and diabetic nephropathy. Conclusion Despite absence of CAD, DM remained associated with increased mortality. Excess mortality was primarily driven by patients dying of DM-related microvascular complications and ketoacidosis. Thus, despite absence of CAD, patients with DM require continued preventative measures to reduce DM-related mortality. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Aarhus University Hospital

Background Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of both microvascular macrovascular complications. The association between microvascular disease and cardiovascular risk, however, is less explored. Aims We aimed to estimate the cardiovascular risk associated with microvascular disease in diabetes patients with and without coronary artery disease. Methods We included every patient who underwent coronary angiography in Western Denmark between 2003–2016. Patients were stratified by microvascular disease (defined as diagnosis retinopathy, nephropathy, or peripheral neuropathy) and coronary artery disease by angiography. Outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and cardiac death) as a combined outcome and as separate outcomes. Patients were followed for a maximum of 10 years. We estimated 10-year cumulative incidence of each outcome. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were estimated by a modified Poisson regression model using diabetes patients with neither microvascular disease nor coronary artery disease as reference. Results We included 19,295 patients with diabetes, of whom 1,268 (6.6%) had microvascular disease, 10,161 (52.7%) had coronary artery disease, 3,113 (16.3%) had both microvascular disease and coronary artery disease, and 4,753 (24.6%) had neither microvascular nor coronary artery disease. Median follow-up was 5.9 years (interquartile range 3.3–9.0) Patients with microvascular disease had an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events compared to diabetes patients with neither microvascular disease nor coronary artery disease (13.6% versus 10.0%, adjusted IRR 1.45, 95% CI 1.19–1.77, Figure 1). This increased risk was driven by a 3.9% higher risk of ischemic stroke (adjusted IRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.14–2.05, Figure 2), while microvascular disease was not associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (adjusted IRR 1.08, 95% CI 0.72–1.62) or cardiac death (adjusted IRR 0.99, 95% CI 0.63–1.56). Patients with both microvascular disease and coronary artery disease had the highest risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (29.3%, adjusted IRR 3.06, 95% CI 2.67–3.50). Conclusion Microvascular disease in diabetes patients without angiographic coronary artery disease is associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. However, this was driven by a higher risk of ischemic stroke than by higher rates of myocardial infarction or cardiac death. In fact, diabetes patients with microvascular disease but no coronary artery disease had the same risk of ischemic stroke as those with combined microvascular disease and coronary artery disease. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Aarhus University Hospital