BACKGROUND: Universal screening is recommended to reduce the age of diagnosis for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, there are insufficient data on children who screen negative and no study of outcomes from truly universal screening. With this study, we filled these gaps by examining the accuracy of universal screening with systematic follow-up through 4 to 8 years. METHODS: Universal, primary care-based screening was conducted using the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers with Follow-Up (M-CHAT/F) and supported by electronic administration and integration into electronic health records. All children with a well-child visit (1) between 16 and 26 months, (2) at a Children's Hospital of Philadelphia site after universal electronic screening was initiated, and (3) between January 2011 and July 2015 were included (N = 25 999). RESULTS: Nearly universal screening was achieved (91%), and ASD prevalence was 2.2%. Overall, the M-CHAT/F's sensitivity was 38.8%, and its positive predictive value (PPV) was 14.6%. Sensitivity was higher in older toddlers and with repeated screenings, whereas PPV was lower in girls. Finally, the M-CHAT/F's specificity and PPV were lower in children of color and those from lower-income households. CONCLUSIONS: Universal screening in primary care is possible when supported by electronic administration. In this "real-world" cohort that was systematically followed, the M-CHAT/F was less accurate in detecting ASD than in previous studies. Disparities in screening rates and accuracy were evident in traditionally underrepresented groups. Future research should focus on the development of new methods that detect a greater proportion of children with ASD and reduce disparities in the screening process. WHAT'S KNOWN ON THIS SUBJECT: Universal screening for autism spectrum disorder is recommended in primary care to facilitate early detection. However, the US Preventive Services Task Force concluded that there is currently insufficient data from primary care and with longitudinal follow-up to recommend universal screening. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: We examined the accuracy of autism screening in a diverse cohort screened nearly universally (91%) and followed-up systematically. The M-CHAT/F had lower sensitivity and positive predictive value than in previous studies; disparities were observed in screening rates and accuracy.

Objectives Although the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends screening for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) for all young children, disparities in ASD diagnosis and intervention in minority children persist. One potential contributor to disparities could be whether physicians take different actions after an initial positive screen based on patient demographics. This study estimated factors associated with physicians completing the follow-up interview for the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers with Follow-up (M-CHAT-F), and referring children to diagnostic services, audiology, and Early Intervention (EI) immediately after a positive screen. Methods Children seen in a large primary care network that has implemented universal ASD screening were included if they screened positive on the M-CHAT parent questionnaire during a 16-30 month well child visit (N = 2882). Demographics, screening results, and referrals were extracted from the electronic health record. Results Children from lower-income families or on public insurance were more likely to have been administered the follow-up interview. Among children who screened positive, 26% were already in EI, 31% were newly referred to EI, 11% were referred each to audiology and for comprehensive ASD evaluation. 40.2% received at least one recommended referral; 3.7% received all recommended referrals. In adjusted multivariable models, male sex, white versus black race, living in an English-speaking household, and having public insurance were associated with new EI referral. Male sex, black versus white race, and lower household income were associated with referral to audiology. Being from an English-speaking family,

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