The effects of hybridization on evolutionary processes are primarily determined by the differential between hybrid and parental species fitness. Assessing the impacts of hybridization can be challenging, however, as determining the relationship between individual fitness and the extent of introgression in wild populations is difficult. We evaluated the fitness consequences of hybridization for pure and hybrid females in a hybrid zone between two tidal marsh birds, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), a salt marsh obligate, and Nelson's sparrow (A. nelsoni), which has a broader ecological niche and a much younger evolutionary association with salt marshes. Biotic stressors associated with nesting in tidal environments suggest an important role for differential adaptation in shaping hybrid zone dynamics, with saltmarsh sparrows predicted to be better adapted to nesting in salt marshes. We collected DNA samples from adults (n = 394) and nestlings (n = 431) to determine the extent of introgression using 12 microsatellite loci and tested for the influence of extrinsic (nest placement) and intrinsic (genotype) factors on female reproductive success. We monitored nests (n = 228), collected data on reproductive output, and estimated daily nest survival rates using female genotype and nest characteristics as covariates. To test for reduced survival of hybrid females, we also used capture data to assess the distribution of admixed male and female individuals across age classes. Reproductive success of females varied by genotypic class, but hybrids did not have intermediate success as predicted. Instead, we found that pure Nelson's sparrows had, on average, 33% lower hatching success than any other genotype, whereas F1/F2 hybrids, backcrossed Nelson's sparrows, and backcrossed and pure saltmarsh sparrows all had similar hatching success. We found no effect of genotype or nest placement on daily nest survival probabilities. However, hybrid individuals with a higher proportion of saltmarsh sparrow alleles exhibit nesting behaviours better suited to nesting successfully in tidal marshes. Further, while the proportion of F1/F2 individuals was similar between nestling and adult males, we found that the proportion of F1/F2 individuals was 2.3 times greater in nestling females compared with adult females, indicating reduced survival of F1 females. We conclude that differences in reproductive success among pure and admixed individuals coupled with intrinsic mechanisms (reduced survival in F1 females) shape hybrid zone dynamics in this system.

The range of a species is determined by the balance of its demographic rates across space. Population growth rates are widely hypothesized to be greatest at the geographic center of the species range, but indirect empirical support for this pattern using abundance as a proxy has been mixed, and demographic rates are rarely quantified on a large spatial scale. Therefore, the texture of how demographic rates of a species vary over its range remains an open question. We quantified seasonal fecundity of populations spanning the majority of the global range of a single species, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), which demonstrates a peak of abundance at the geographic center of its range. We used a novel, population projection method to estimate seasonal fecundity inclusive of seasonal and spatial variation in life history traits that contribute to seasonal fecundity. We replicated our study over 3 years, and compared seasonal fecundity to latitude and distance among plots. We observed large-scale patterns in some life history traits that contribute to seasonal fecundity, such as an increase in clutch size with latitude. However, we observed no relationship between latitude and seasonal fecundity. Instead, fecundity varied greatly among plots separated by as little as 1 km. Our results do not support the hypothesis that demographic rates are highest at the geographic and abundance center of a species range, but rather they suggest that local drivers strongly influence saltmarsh sparrow fecundity across their global range.

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Demographic rates are rarely estimated over an entire species range, limiting empirical tests of ecological patterns and theories, and raising questions about the representativeness of studies that use data from a small part of a range. The uncertainty that results from using demographic rates from just a few sites is especially pervasive in population projections, which are critical for a wide range of questions in ecology and conservation. We developed a simple simulation to quantify how this lack of geographic representativeness can affect inferences about the global mean and variance of growth rates, which has implications for the robust design of a wide range of population studies. Using a coastal songbird, saltmarsh sparrow Ammodramus caudacutus, as a case study, we first estimated survival, fecundity, and population growth rates at 21 sites distributed across much of their breeding range. We then subsampled this large, representative dataset according to five sampling scenarios in order to simulate a variety of geographic biases in study design. We found spatial variation in demographic rates, but no large systematic patterns. Estimating the global mean and variance of growth rates using subsets of the data suggested that at least 10–15 sites were required for reasonably unbiased estimates, highlighting how relying on demographic data from just a few sites can lead to biased results when extrapolating across a species range. Sampling at the full 21 sites, however, offered diminishing returns, raising the possibility that for some species accepting some geographical bias in sampling can still allow for robust range‐wide inferences. The subsampling approach presented here, while conceptually simple, could be used with both new and existing data to encourage efficiency in the design of long‐term or large‐scale ecological studies.

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance–impacted projections to a population's normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short‐term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance‐prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.