Questions How does tree line community composition vary between elevations, aspects and slope angles in the alpine subarctic and what are the specific abiotic factors governing this variability? How do species richness and rates of community turnover vary from low to high elevation across the forest–tundra ecotone? What do the results indicate about future vegetation change? Location Kluane Region, southwest Yukon, Canada. Methods We surveyed plant communities and measured key abiotic variables across forest–tundra ecotones in six alpine valleys, each with a north‐ and a south‐facing slope, in two mountain ranges of southwest Yukon. We used NMS to identify patterns in plant community composition and infer which abiotic variables drive these patterns. We calculated species richness and community dissimilarity at regular elevational intervals to assess trends in richness and rates of community turnover within the ecotone. Results Plant communities varied more with aspect and slope angle than they did with elevation. Aspect‐related differences were driven by warmer soil temperatures and deeper active layers on south‐ compared to north‐facing slopes, while differences related to slope angle occurred only on north‐facing slopes and were driven by soil moisture. Species richness increased with elevation on north‐facing slopes and showed no trend with elevation on south‐facing slopes. Rates of community turnover were higher on south‐facing than north‐facing slopes. Conclusions Plant community composition within the forest–tundra ecotone is driven primarily by soil temperature and, to a lesser extent, soil moisture, both of which vary more in relation to aspect and slope angle than they do between forest and tundra elevations. We recommend that models of vegetation change in subarctic alpine regions address the possibility of change occurring at different rates and in different directions depending on the topographic characteristics of each slope.

1. Boreal peatlands are frequently underlain by permafrost, which is thawing rapidly. A common ecological response to thaw is the conversion of raised forested plateaus to treeless wetlands, but unexplained spatial variation in responses, combined with a lack of stand-level data, make it difficult to predict future trajectories of boreal forest composition and structure. 2. We sought to characterize patterns and identify drivers of forest structure, composition, mortality and recruitment in a boreal peatland experiencing permafrost thaw. To do this, we established a large (10 ha) permanent forest plot (completed in 2014), located in the Northwest Territories, Canada, that includes 40,584 mapped and measured trees. In 2018, we conducted a comprehensive mortality and recruitment recensus. We also measured frost table depth, soil moisture, soil humification and organic layer thickness within the plot between 2012 and 2018, and used habitat association tests to link these variables to forest characteristics and dynamics. 3. Forest composition and structure varied markedly throughout the plot and were strongly governed by patterns in permafrost presence and organic layer thickness. Overall, there was a net loss of trees from the plot at a rate of 0.7% year −1. Mortality of black spruce, the dominant tree species, was more than double that of recruitment and was strongly associated with permafrost thaw. In contrast, recruitment of larch was over four times greater than mortality, and occurred primarily in low-lying, permafrost-free wetlands with mineral soil near the surface. 4. Synthesis. The trends in tree demography and underlying drivers suggest that sprucedominated permafrost plateaus will be converted into larch-dominated wetlands as permafrost thaw progresses in boreal peatlands, particularly in areas where mineral soil is near the surface. In the longer term, thaw could increase the hydrologic connectivity of the landscape, resulting in widespread drainage and re-vegetation by spruce, but we did not find evidence that this is occurring yet. Given the increasing rates of permafrost thaw, and positive feedbacks between thaw and forest change, we predict that larch abundance will continue to increase in boreal peatlands over the coming decades, leading to shifts in ecosystem function, wildlife habitat, albedo and snow dynamics. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

Dakota skipper (Hesperia dacotae Skinner) andPoweshiek skipperling (Oarisma poweshiek Parker) (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae) are endemic prairie species that are threatened in Canada. Surveys during the brief adult flight period are necessary to quantify population sizes, but dates of adult emergence vary widely from year to year (up to 24 days) and populations are geographically distant from one another (150-250 km). To predict adult emergence of H. dacotae and O. poweshiek, we used local weather station data to calculate the number of degree days accumulated between March 1 and adult emergence using two different models in seven different years between 2002 and 2013. We also compared the number of degree days accumulated at the soil surface where larvae and pupae reside to those accumulated using weather station data. We recommend that surveys for Dakota skipper begin when degree day accumulations (from weather stations) reach a threshold of 575 (standard model) or 600 (double sine model) in the south central portion of Manitoba and 550 (standard model) or 575 (double sine model) in the southwest region of Manitoba. For Poweshiek skipperling surveys should be considered after degree day accumulations reach 575 (standard model) or 625 (double sine model). Degree days accumulated at the soil surface were 20-30 % greater than those calculated using weather station data in Dakota skipper sites, and 1-12 % greater in Poweshiek skipperling sites. Using our models, we predicted adult emergence to within 48 h of emergence in 2011, 2012 and 2013.

Species distribution models (SDMs) use spatial relationships between species occurrence and habitat (predictor) variables to generate maps of habitat suitability across a region of interest. These maps are frequently used in recovery planning efforts for endangered species, but they are influenced by data availability, selection of predictor variables, and choice of model type. Ground validation is necessary to robustly evaluate map accuracy, but it is rarely done, making it difficult to determine which modeling approach is best-suited for a given species or region. To address this uncertainty, we used two SDM types (Maxent and GLM) and two methods of selecting predictor variables to build four SDMs for an endangered prairie butterfly (Dakota skipper, Hesperia dacotae) in two regions of Manitoba, Canada. We then conducted field-based habitat suitability assessments at 120 locations in each region to enable direct comparisons of model output and accuracy. We found that soil type and surrounding landcover (grassland versus cropland) were important predictors of species occurrence regardless of region, predictor selection method, or model type. Cross-validation statistics indicated that most SDMs performed well (AUC > 0.7), but ground validation revealed that the habitat suitability maps they generated were inaccurate (Cohen’s kappa < 0.4). Maxent models produced more accurate maps than GLMs, likely because false species absences adversely affected the latter, but only one Maxent-based map was accurate enough to help locate sites for future field investigations (Cohen’s kappa > 0.3). Our results emphasize the importance of ground-validating SDM-based habitat suitability maps before incorporating them into species recovery plans.

Time series of vegetation indices derived from satellite imagery are useful in measuring vegetation response to climate warming in remote northern regions. These indices show that productivity is generally declining in the boreal forest, but it is unclear which components of boreal vegetation are driving these trends. We aimed to compare trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to forest growth and demographic data taken from a 10 ha mapped plot located in a spruce-dominated boreal peatland. We used microcores to quantify recent growth trends and tree census data to characterize mortality and recruitment rates of the three dominant tree species. We then compared spatial patterns in growth and demography to patterns in Landsat-derived maximum NDVI trends in 78 pixels that fell within the plot. We found that NDVI trends were predominantly positive (i.e., "greening") in spite of the ongoing loss of black spruce (the dominant species; 80% of stems) from the plot. The magnitude of these trends correlated positively with black spruce growth trends, but was also governed to a large extent by tree mortality and recruitment.Greening trends were weaker (lower slope) in areas with high larch mortality, and high turnover of spruce and birch, but stronger (higher slope) in areas with high larch recruitment. Larch dominance is currently low (~11% of stems), but it is increasing in abundance as permafrost thaw progresses and will likely have a substantial influence on future NDVI trends. Our results emphasize that NDVI trends in boreal peatlands can be positive even when the forest as a whole is in decline, and that the magnitude of trends can be strongly influenced by the demographics of uncommon species.