The European Space Agency Aeolus mission launched the first‐of‐its‐kind space‐borne Doppler wind lidar in August 2018. The Aeolus Level‐2B (L2B) Horizontal Line‐of‐Sight (HLOS) wind observations are integrated into the NOAA Finite‐Volume Cubed‐Sphere Global Forecast System (FV3GFS). Components of the data assimilation system are optimized to increase the forecast impact from these Aeolus observations. Three observing‐system experiments (OSEs) are performed using the Aeolus L2B HLOS winds for the period of August 2–September 16, 2019: a baseline experiment assimilating all observations that are operationally assimilated in NOAA's FV3GFS but without Aeolus; an experiment adding the Aeolus L2B HLOS winds on top of the baseline configuration; and an experiment adding the Aeolus L2B HLOS winds on top of the baseline but also including a total least‐squares (TLS) regression bias correction applied to the HLOS winds. The variances of the Aeolus HLOS wind random errors (i.e., observation errors) are estimated using the Hollingsworth–Lonnberg (HL) method. Results from both OSEs demonstrate positive impact of Aeolus L2B HLOS winds on the NOAA global forecast. The largest impact is seen in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere where the Day 1–3 wind vector forecast root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) is reduced by up to 4%. Additionally, the assimilation of Aeolus impacts the steering currents ambient to tropical cyclones, resulting in a 15% reduction in track forecast error in the Eastern Pacific basin Day 2–5 forecasts, and a 5% and 20% reduction in track forecast error in the Atlantic basin at Day 2 and Day 5, respectively. In most cases, the additional TLS bias correction increases the positive impact of Aeolus data assimilation in the NOAA global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system when compared to the assimilation of Aeolus without bias correction.
Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks and their relation to winter weather are investigated using NCEP CFSR data. Storm tracks are described by isentropic PV maxima within a Lagrangian framework; these correspond well with those described in previous studies. The current diagnostics focus on strong-storm tracks, which comprise storms that achieve a maximum PV exceeding the mean value by one standard deviation. Large increases in diabatic heating related to deep convection occur where the storm tracks are most intense. The cyclogenesis pattern shows that strong storms generally develop on the upstream sectors of the tracks. Intensification happens toward the eastern North Pacific and all across the North Atlantic Ocean, where enhanced storm-track-related weather is found. In this study, the relation of storm tracks to near-surface winds and precipitation is evaluated. The largest increases in storm-track-related winds are found where strong storms tend to develop and intensify, while storm precipitation is enhanced in areas where the storm tracks have their highest intensity. Strong storms represent about 16% of all storms but contribute 30%–50% of the storm precipitation in the storm-track regions. Both strong-storm-related winds and precipitation are prone to cause storm-related losses in the eastern U.S. and North American coasts. Over the oceans, maritime operations are expected to be most vulnerable to damage offshore of the U.S. coasts. Despite making up a small fraction of all storms, the strong-storm tracks have a significant imprint on winter weather in North America potentially leading to structural and economic loss.
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