As global land surface temperature continues to rise and heat wave events increase in frequency, duration and/or intensity, our key food and fuel cropping systems will likely face increased heat-related stress. A large volume of literature exists on exploring measured and modelled impacts of rising temperature on crop photosynthesis, from enzymatic responses within the leaf up to larger ecosystem scale responses that reflect seasonal and inter-annual crop responses to heat. This review discusses (i) how crop photosynthesis changes with temperature at the enzymatic scale within the leaf, (ii) how stomata and plant transport systems are affected by temperature, (iii) what features make a plant susceptible or tolerant to elevated temperature and heat stress, and (iv) how these temperature and heat effects compound at the ecosystem scale to affect crop yields. Throughout the review, we identify current advancements and future research trajectories that are needed to make our cropping systems more resilient to rising temperature and heat stress, which are both projected to occur due to current global fossil fuel emissions.

Spectroscopy is becoming an increasingly powerful tool to alleviate the challenges of traditional measurements of key plant traits at the leaf, canopy, and ecosystem scales. Spectroscopic methods often rely on statistical approaches to reduce data redundancy and enhance useful prediction of physiological traits. Given the mechanistic uncertainty of spectroscopic techniques, genetic modification of plant biochemical pathways may affect reflectance spectra causing predictive models to lose power. The objectives of this research were to assess over two separate years, whether a predictive model can represent natural and imposed variation in leaf photosynthetic potential for different crop cultivars and genetically modified plants, to assess the interannual capabilities of a partial least square regression (PLSR) model, and to determine whether leaf N is a dominant driver of photosynthesis in PLSR models. In 2016, a PLSR analysis of reflectance spectra coupled with gas exchange data was used to build predictive models for photosynthetic parameters including maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vc,max), maximum electron transport rate (Jmax) and percentage leaf nitrogen ([N]). The model was developed for wild type and genetically modified plants that represent a wide range of photosynthetic capacities. Results show that hyperspectral reflectance accurately predicted Vc,max, Jmax and [N] for all plants measured in 2016. Applying these PLSR models to plants grown in 2017 resulted in a strong predictive ability relative to gas exchange measurements for Vc,max, but not for Jmax, and not for genotypes unique to 2017. Building a new model including data collected in 2017 resulted in more robust predictions, with R2 increases of 17% for Vc,max. and 13% Jmax. Plants generally have a positive correlation between leaf nitrogen and photosynthesis, however, tobacco with reduced Rubisco (SSuD) had significantly higher [N] despite much lower Vc,max. The PLSR model was able to accurately predict both lower Vc,max and higher leaf [N] for this genotype suggesting that the spectral based estimates of Vc,max and leaf nitrogen [N] are independent. These results suggest that the PLSR model can be applied across years, but only to genotypes used to build the model and that the actual mechanism measured with the PLSR technique is not directly related to leaf [N]. The success of the leaf-scale analysis suggests that similar approaches may be successful at the canopy and ecosystem scales but to use these methods across years and between genotypes at any scale, application of accurately populated physical based models based on radiative transfer principles may be required.

Global agriculture production is challenged by increasing demands from rising population and a changing climate, which may be alleviated through development of genetically improved crop cultivars. Research into increasing photosynthetic energy conversion efficiency has proposed many strategies to improve production but have yet to yield real-world solutions, largely because of a phenotyping bottleneck. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) is a statistical technique that is increasingly used to relate hyperspectral reflectance to key photosynthetic capacities associated with carbon uptake (maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco, V c,max ) and conversion of light energy (maximum electron transport rate supporting RuBP regeneration, J max ) to alleviate this bottleneck. However, its performance varies significantly across different plant species, regions, and growth environments. Thus, to cope with the heterogeneous performances of PLSR, this study aims to develop a new approach to estimate photosynthetic capacities. A framework was developed that combines six machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest (RF), Gaussian process (GP), and PLSR to optimize high-throughput analysis of the two photosynthetic variables. Six tobacco genotypes, including both transgenic and wild-type lines, with a range of photosynthetic capacities were used to test the framework. Leaf reflectance spectra were measured from 400 to 2500 nm using a high-spectral-resolution spectroradiometer. Corresponding photosynthesis vs. intercellular CO 2 concentration response curves were measured for each leaf using a leaf gas-exchange system. Results suggested that the mean R 2 value of the six regression techniques for predicting V c,max ( J max ) ranged from 0.60 (0.45) to 0.65 (0.56) with the mean RMSE value varying from 47.1 (40.1) to 54.0 (44.7) μmol m -2 s -1 . Regression stacking for V c,max ( J max ) performed better than the individual regression techniques with increases in R 2 of 0.1 (0.08) and decreases in RMSE by 4.1 (6.6) μmol m -2 s -1 , equal to 8% (15%) reduction in RMSE . Better predictive performance of the regression stacking is likely attributed to the varying coefficients (or weights) in the level-2 model (the LASSO model) and the diverse ability of each individual regression technique to utilize spectral information for the best modeling performance. Further refinements can be made to apply this stacked regression t...

The lack of efficient means to accurately infer photosynthetic traits constrains understanding global land carbon fluxes and improving photosynthetic pathways to increase crop yield. Here, we investigated whether a hyperspectral imaging camera mounted on a mobile platform could provide the capability to help resolve these challenges, focusing on three main approaches, that is, reflectance spectra-, spectral indices-, and numerical model inversions-based partial least square regression (PLSR) to estimate photosynthetic traits from canopy hyperspectral reflectance for 11 tobacco cultivars. Results showed that PLSR with inputs of reflectance spectra or spectral indices yielded an R 2 of~0.8 for predicting V cmax and J max , higher than an R 2 of~0.6 provided by PLSR of numerical inversions. Compared with PLSR of reflectance spectra, PLSR with spectral indices exhibited a better performance for predicting V cmax (R 2 = 0.84 ± 0.02, RMSE = 33.8 ± 2.2 μmol m −2 s −1 ) while a similar performance for J max (R 2 = 0.80 ± 0.03, RMSE = 22.6 ± 1.6 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Further analysis on spectral resampling revealed that V cmax and J max could be predicted with 10 spectral bands at a spectral resolution of less than 14.7 nm. These results have important implications for improving photosynthetic pathways and mapping of photosynthesis across scales. K E Y W O R D S earth system models, global carbon cycles, high-throughput mapping, hyperspectral imaging, machine learning, photosynthesis, plant breeding

Photosynthesis is currently measured using time-laborious and/or destructive methods which slows research and breeding efforts to identify crop germplasm with higher photosynthetic capacities. We present a plot-level screening tool for quantification of photosynthetic parameters and pigment contents that utilizes hyperspectral reflectance from sunlit leaf pixels collected from a plot (~2 m×2 m) in <1 min. Using field-grown Nicotiana tabacum with genetically altered photosynthetic pathways over two growing seasons (2017 and 2018), we built predictive models for eight photosynthetic parameters and pigment traits. Using partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis of plot-level sunlit vegetative reflectance pixels from a single visible near infra-red (VNIR) (400–900 nm) hyperspectral camera, we predict maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vc,max, R2=0.79) maximum electron transport rate in given conditions (J1800, R2=0.59), maximal light-saturated photosynthesis (Pmax, R2=0.54), chlorophyll content (R2=0.87), the Chl a/b ratio (R2=0.63), carbon content (R2=0.47), and nitrogen content (R2=0.49). Model predictions did not improve when using two cameras spanning 400–1800 nm, suggesting a robust, widely applicable and more ‘cost-effective’ pipeline requiring only a single VNIR camera. The analysis pipeline and methods can be used in any cropping system with modified species-specific PLSR analysis to offer a high-throughput field phenotyping screening for germplasm with improved photosynthetic performance in field trials.