BackgroundIn-silico virtual patients and trials offer significant advantages in cost, time and safety for designing effective tight glycemic control (TGC) protocols. However, no such method has fully validated the independence of virtual patients (or resulting clinical trial predictions) from the data used to create them. This study uses matched cohorts from a TGC clinical trial to validate virtual patients and in-silico virtual trial models and methods.MethodsData from a 211 patient subset of the Glucontrol trial in Liege, Belgium. Glucontrol-A (N = 142) targeted 4.4-6.1 mmol/L and Glucontrol-B (N = 69) targeted 7.8-10.0 mmol/L. Cohorts were matched by APACHE II score, initial BG, age, weight, BMI and sex (p > 0.25). Virtual patients are created by fitting a clinically validated model to clinical data, yielding time varying insulin sensitivity profiles (SI(t)) that drives in-silico patients.Model fit and intra-patient (forward) prediction errors are used to validate individual in-silico virtual patients. Self-validation (tests A protocol on Group-A virtual patients; and B protocol on B virtual patients) and cross-validation (tests A protocol on Group-B virtual patients; and B protocol on A virtual patients) are used in comparison to clinical data to assess ability to predict clinical trial results.ResultsModel fit errors were small (<0.25%) for all patients, indicating model fitness. Median forward prediction errors were: 4.3, 2.8 and 3.5% for Group-A, Group-B and Overall (A+B), indicating individual virtual patients were accurate representations of real patients. SI and its variability were similar between cohorts indicating they were metabolically similar.Self and cross validation results were within 1-10% of the clinical data for both Group-A and Group-B. Self-validation indicated clinically insignificant errors due to model and/or clinical compliance. Cross-validation clearly showed that virtual patients enabled by identified patient-specific SI(t) profiles can accurately predict the performance of independent and different TGC protocols.ConclusionsThis study fully validates these virtual patients and in silico virtual trial methods, and clearly shows they can accurately simulate, in advance, the clinical results of a TGC protocol, enabling rapid in silico protocol design and optimization. These outcomes provide the first rigorous validation of a virtual in-silico patient and virtual trials methodology.

IntroductionIntensive care unit mortality is strongly associated with organ failure rate and severity. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is used to evaluate the impact of a successful tight glycemic control (TGC) intervention (SPRINT) on organ failure, morbidity, and thus mortality.MethodsA retrospective analysis of 371 patients (3,356 days) on SPRINT (August 2005 - April 2007) and 413 retrospective patients (3,211 days) from two years prior, matched by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III. SOFA is calculated daily for each patient. The effect of the SPRINT TGC intervention is assessed by comparing the percentage of patients with SOFA ≤5 each day and its trends over time and cohort/group. Organ-failure free days (all SOFA components ≤2) and number of organ failures (SOFA components >2) are also compared. Cumulative time in 4.0 to 7.0 mmol/L band (cTIB) was evaluated daily to link tightness and consistency of TGC (cTIB ≥0.5) to SOFA ≤5 using conditional and joint probabilities.ResultsAdmission and maximum SOFA scores were similar (P = 0.20; P = 0.76), with similar time to maximum (median: one day; IQR: [1,3] days; P = 0.99). Median length of stay was similar (4.1 days SPRINT and 3.8 days Pre-SPRINT; P = 0.94). The percentage of patients with SOFA ≤5 is different over the first 14 days (P = 0.016), rising to approximately 75% for Pre-SPRINT and approximately 85% for SPRINT, with clear separation after two days. Organ-failure-free days were different (SPRINT = 41.6%; Pre-SPRINT = 36.5%; P < 0.0001) as were the percent of total possible organ failures (SPRINT = 16.0%; Pre-SPRINT = 19.0%; P < 0.0001). By Day 3 over 90% of SPRINT patients had cTIB ≥0.5 (37% Pre-SPRINT) reaching 100% by Day 7 (50% Pre-SPRINT). Conditional and joint probabilities indicate tighter, more consistent TGC under SPRINT (cTIB ≥0.5) increased the likelihood SOFA ≤5.ConclusionsSPRINT TGC resolved organ failure faster, and for more patients, from similar admission and maximum SOFA scores, than conventional control. These reductions mirror the reduced mortality with SPRINT. The cTIB ≥0.5 metric provides a first benchmark linking TGC quality to organ failure. These results support other physiological and clinical results indicating the role tight, consistent TGC can play in reducing organ failure, morbidity and mortality, and should be validated on data from randomised trials.

Non-invasive monitoring of breath ammonia and trimethylamine using Selected-ion-flow-tube mass spectroscopy (SIFT-MS) could provide a real-time alternative to current invasive techniques. Breath ammonia and trimethylamine were monitored by SIFT-MS before, during and after haemodialysis in 20 patients. In 15 patients (41 sessions), breath was collected hourly into Tedlar bags and analysed immediately (group A). During multiple dialyses over 8 days, five patients breathed directly into the SIFT-MS analyser every 30 min (group B). Pre- and post-dialysis direct breath concentrations were compared with urea reduction, Kt/V and creatinine concentrations. Dialysis decreased breath ammonia, but a transient increase occurred mid treatment in some patients. Trimethylamine decreased more rapidly than reported previously. Pre-dialysis breath ammonia correlated with pre-dialysis urea in group B (r(2) = 0.71) and with change in urea (group A, r(2) = 0.24; group B, r(2) = 0.74). In group B, ammonia correlated with change in creatinine (r(2) = 0.35), weight (r(2) = 0.52) and Kt/V (r(2) = 0.30). The ammonia reduction ratio correlated with the urea reduction ratio (URR) (r(2) = 0.42) and Kt/V (r(2) = 0.38). Pre-dialysis trimethylamine correlated with Kt/V (r(2) = 0.21), and the trimethylamine reduction ratio with URR (r(2) = 0.49) and Kt/V (r(2) = 0.36). Real-time breath analysis revealed previously unmeasurable differences in clearance kinetics of ammonia and trimethylamine. Breath ammonia is potentially useful in assessment of dialysis efficacy.

The Circle of Willis is a ring-like structure of blood vessels found beneath the hypothalamus at the base of the brain. Its main function is to distribute oxygen-rich arterial blood to the cerebral mass. One-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of the Circle of Willis have been created to provide a simulation tool which can potentially be used to identify at-risk cerebral arterial geometries and conditions and replicate clinical scenarios, such as occlusions in afferent arteries and absent circulus vessels. Both models capture cerebral haemodynamic autoregulation using a proportional-integral (PI) controller to modify efferent artery resistances to maintain optimal efferent flow rates for a given circle geometry and afferent blood pressure. The models can be used to identify at-risk cerebral arterial geometries and conditions prior to surgery or other clinical procedures. The 1D model is particularly relevant in this instance, with its fast solution time suitable for real-time clinical decisions. Results show the excellent correlation between models for the transient efferent flux profile. The assumption of strictly Poiseuille flow in the 1D model allows more flow through the geometrically extreme communicating arteries than the 3D model. This discrepancy was overcome by increasing the resistance to flow in the anterior communicating artery in the 1D model to better match the resistance seen in the 3D results.

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