Objective. To analyze the relationship between rural and urban homicide rates in Colombia between 1992 and 2015 and the fluctuations in these rates. Methods. Individual records of homicides and population aggregates in men and women aged 15-64 years were used. The adjusted rates of annual homicides were calculated for urban/rural areas and standardized by age. Rate Ratios (RRs) adjusted by region were calculated. A joinpoint analysis was performed to identify inflection points and the Annual Percentage Change (APC). Results. Four joinpoints were identified in rural and urban rates: after peaking in 1992, homicide rates fell until 1997, and then increased until 2002. From this point on there was a continuous reduction until 2015, although this reduction slowed down from 2005 onward. During almost the whole period, the rates of rural homicides were higher than those of urban homicides, although they equalized at the end of the period. Conclusions. Unlike in other countries, during the study period Colombian homicide rates, which coincided with the dynamics of the armed conflict, were higher in rural than in urban areas. In recent years, a predominance of urban homicides committed by younger men has been identified, which could pose a challenge to postconflict in Colombia.

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ObjectiveTo analyze urban/rural fluctuations of homicide in Colombia, 1992–2015, and compare those changes with the contextual setting in which them ocurred.MethodsEcological study of time trends using individual records of homicides and population aggregated data for those aged 15–64. Age-standardized homicide rates (ASHR) were calculated in men and women separately by year, sex, age and Urban/Rural area. Urban/Rural (Ref.) Rate Ratios (RR) were calculated adjusting also by regions. Joinpoint analyzes in ASHR and RR were performed to identify inflection points and Annual Percent Change (APC) between them.ResultsFor the whole period larger homicide rates were found among men than among women (ASMR=95.4 and 7.3 homicides per 1000 population respectively). Urban/Rural ASMR were respectively 107.1/91.5 among men and 9.8/6.6 per 1000 population among women. Four joinpoints are vastly coincident in total, urban and rural homicide: A peak in 1992 was followed by a lessening until 1997 only significant in urban areas (APC=−9.0% among men and −9.8 among women) and then a strong increase up to 2002. From this point a steady reduction in ASHR follows up to 2015, which slightly curbed from 2005. For almost the entire period, higher rates of rural homicide were found, and at the end of the period this ratio equated.ConclusionsContrasting with other countries we found larger homicide in rural areas. Fluctuations of homicide in Colombia coincided with dynamics of the internal armed conflict. In recent years, we found an increasing burden of urban lethal violence, mainly pushed by homicides in younger men, conveying a new challenge for post-conflict in Colombia.