We conducted the largest investigation of predisposition variants in cancer to date, discovering 853 pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in 8% of 10,389 cases from 33 cancer types. Twenty-one genes showed single or cross-cancer associations, including novel associations of SDHA in melanoma and PALB2 in stomach adenocarcinoma. The 659 predisposition variants and 18 additional large deletions in tumor suppressors, including ATM, BRCA1, and NF1, showed low gene expression and frequent (43%) loss of heterozygosity or biallelic two-hit events. We also discovered 33 such variants in oncogenes, including missenses in MET, RET, and PTPN11 associated with high gene expression. We nominated 47 additional predisposition variants from prioritized VUSs supported by multiple evidences involving case-control frequency, loss of heterozygosity, expression effect, and co-localization with mutations and modified residues. Our integrative approach links rare predisposition variants to functional consequences, informing future guidelines of variant classification and germline genetic testing in cancer.

Prostate tumours are highly variable in their response to therapies, but clinically available prognostic factors can explain only a fraction of this heterogeneity. Here we analysed 200 whole-genome sequences and 277 additional whole-exome sequences from localized, non-indolent prostate tumours with similar clinical risk profiles, and carried out RNA and methylation analyses in a subset. These tumours had a paucity of clinically actionable single nucleotide variants, unlike those seen in metastatic disease. Rather, a significant proportion of tumours harboured recurrent non-coding aberrations, large-scale genomic rearrangements, and alterations in which an inversion repressed transcription within its boundaries. Local hypermutation events were frequent, and correlated with specific genomic profiles. Numerous molecular aberrations were prognostic for disease recurrence, including several DNA methylation events, and a signature comprised of these aberrations outperformed well-described prognostic biomarkers. We suggest that intensified treatment of genomically aggressive localized prostate cancer may improve cure rates.

The detection of somatic mutations from cancer genome sequences is key to understanding the genetic basis of disease progression, patient survival and response to therapy. Benchmarking is needed for tool assessment and improvement but is complicated by a lack of gold standards, by extensive resource requirements and by difficulties in sharing personal genomic information. To resolve these issues, we launched the ICGC-TCGA DREAM Somatic Mutation Calling Challenge, a crowdsourced benchmark of somatic mutation detection algorithms. Here we report the BAMSurgeon tool for simulating cancer genomes and the results of 248 analyses of three in silico tumors created with it. Different algorithms exhibit characteristic error profiles, and, intriguingly, false positives show a trinucleotide profile very similar to one found in human tumors. Although the three simulated tumors differ in sequence contamination (deviation from normal cell sequence) and in subclonality, an ensemble of pipelines outperforms the best individual pipeline in all cases. BAMSurgeon is available at https://github.com/adamewing/bamsurgeon/.

The majority of newly diagnosed prostate cancers are slow growing, with a long natural life history. Yet a subset can metastasize with lethal consequences. We reconstructed the phylogenies of 293 localized prostate tumors linked to clinical outcome data. Multiple subclones were detected in 59% of patients, and specific subclonal architectures associate with adverse clinicopathological features. Early tumor development is characterized by point mutations and deletions followed by later subclonal amplifications and changes in trinucleotide mutational signatures. Specific genes are selectively mutated prior to or following subclonal diversification, including MTOR, NKX3-1, and RB1. Patients with low-risk monoclonal tumors rarely relapse after primary therapy (7%), while those with high-risk polyclonal tumors frequently do (61%). The presence of multiple subclones in an index biopsy may be necessary, but not sufficient, for relapse of localized prostate cancer, suggesting that evolution-aware biomarkers should be studied in prospective studies of low-risk tumors suitable for active surveillance.