3When developing computational models to analyze the tradeoffs between climate risk 4 management strategies (i.e., mitigation, adaptation, or geoengineering), scientists make explicit 5 and implicit decisions that are influenced by their beliefs, values and preferences. Model 6 descriptions typically include only the explicit decisions and are silent on value judgments that 7 may explain these decisions. Eliciting scientists" mental models, a systematic approach to 8 determining how they think about climate risk management, can help to gain a clearer 9 understanding of their modeling decisions. In order to identify and represent the role of values, 10 beliefs and preferences on decisions, we used an augmented mental models research approach, 11 namely values-informed mental models (ViMM). We conducted and qualitatively analyzed 12 interviews with eleven climate risk management scientists. Our results suggest that these 13 scientists use a similar decision framework to each other to think about modeling climate risk 14 management tradeoffs, including eight specific decisions ranging from defining the model 15 objectives to evaluating the model"s results. The influence of values on these decisions varied 16 between our scientists and between the specific decisions. For instance, scientists invoked ethical 17 values (e.g., concerns about human welfare) when defining objectives, but epistemic values (e.g., 18 concerns about model consistency) were more influential when evaluating model results. ViMM 19 can (i) enable insights that can inform the design of new computational models and (ii) make 20 value judgments explicit and more inclusive of relevant values. This transparency can help 21 model users to better discern the relevance of model results to their own decision framing and 22 concerns. 23 24 Keywords 25

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This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND The RAND Homeland Security and Defense CenterThe research in this report was conducted in the Homeland Security and Defense Center (HSDC), which performs analysis to prepare and protect communities and critical infrastructure from natural disasters and terrorism. HSDC projects examine a wide range of riskmanagement problems, including coastal and border security, emergency preparedness and response, defense support to civil authorities, transportation security, domestic intelligence, and technology acquisition. HSDC clients include the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of Justice, and other organizations charged with security and disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. HSDC is a joint center of two research divisions: RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment and the RAND National Security Research Division. RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment is dedicated to improving policy and decisionmaking in a wide range of policy domains, including civil and criminal justice, infrastructure protection and homeland security, transportation and energy policy, and environmental and natural resource policy.

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