Background: Most maternal health programs in low-and middle-income countries estimate gestational age to provide appropriate antenatal care at the correct times throughout the pregnancy. Although various gestational dating methods have been validated in research studies, the performance of these methods has not been evaluated on a larger scale, such as within health systems. The objective of this research was to investigate the magnitude and impact of errors in estimated delivery dates on health facility delivery among women enrolled in a maternal health program in Zanzibar. Methods: This study included 4225 women who were enrolled in the Safer Deliveries program and delivered before May 31, 2017. The exposure of interest was error in estimated delivery date categorized as: severe overestimate, when estimated delivery date (EDD) was 36 days or more after the actual delivery date (ADD); moderate overestimate, when EDD was 15 to 35 days after ADD; accurate, when EDD was 6 days before to 14 days after ADD; and underestimate, when EDD was 7 days or more before ADD. We used Chi-squared tests to identify factors associated with errors in estimated delivery dates. We performed logistic regression to assess the impact of errors in estimated delivery dates on health facility delivery adjusting for age, district of residence, HIV status, and occurrence of past home delivery. Results: In our data, 28% of the estimated delivery dates were a severe overestimate, 23% moderate overestimate, 41% accurate, and 8% underestimate. Compared to women with an accurate delivery date, women with a moderate or severe overestimate were significantly less likely to deliver in a health facility (OR = 0.71, 95% CI: [0.59, 0.86]; OR = 0.74, 95% CI: [0.61, 0.91]). When adjusting for multiple confounders, women with moderate overestimates were significantly less likely to deliver in a health facility (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI: [0.61, 0.93]); the result moved slightly towards null for women with severe overestimates (AOR = 0.84, 95% CI: [0.69, 1.03]). Conclusions: The overestimation of women's EDDs reduces the likelihood of health facility delivery. To address this, maternal health programs should improve estimation of EDD or attempt to curb the effect of these errors within their programs.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases are among the most common causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Zanzibar. This study assessed prevalence of, and antecedent factors and care access for the two common cardiovascular risk factors, hypertension and diabetes, to support health system improvements. Methods: Data was from a population based nationally representative survey. Prevalence of hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg or a self-reported diagnosis of hypertension; diabetes was defined as a fasting blood glucose ≥6.1 mmol/L or a self-reported diagnosis of diabetes. Care-cascades for hypertension and diabetes were created with four stages: being tested, diagnosed, treated, and achieving control. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate individual-level factorsincluding symptoms of mental illness-associated with having hypertension or diabetes, and with progressing through the hypertension care cascade. Whether people at overt increased risk of hypertension or diabetes (defined as > 50 years old, BMI > 30 kg/m2, or currently smoking) were more likely to be tested was assessed using chi squared. Results: Prevalence of hypertension was 33.5% (CI 30.6-36.5). Older age (OR 7.7, CI 4.93-12.02), some education (OR 0.6, CI 0.44-0.89), obesity (OR 3.1, CI 2.12-4.44), and raised fasting blood glucose (OR 2.4, CI 2.38) were significantly independently associated with hypertension. Only 10.9% (CI 8.6-13.8) of the entire hypertensive population achieved blood pressure control, associated factors were being female (OR 4.8, CI 2.33-9.88), formally employed (OR 3.0, CI 1.26-7.17), and overweight (OR 2.5, CI 1.29-4.76). The prevalence of diabetes was 4.4% (CI 3.4-5.5), and associated with old age (OR 14.1, CI 6.05-32.65) and almost significantly with obesity (OR 2.1, CI 1.00-4.37). Only 11.9% (CI 6.6-20.6) of the diabetic population had achieved control. Individuals at overt increased risk were more likely to have been tested for hypertension (chi2 19.4) or diabetes (chi2 33.2) compared to the rest of the population. Symptoms of mental illness were not associated with prevalence of disease or progress through the cascade. Conclusion: High prevalence of hypertension and suboptimal management along the care cascades indicates a large unmet need for hypertension and diabetes care in Zanzibar.