Journal articleIFPRI3; CRP2; CRP7; A Ensuring Sustainable food production; DCA; ISIEPTD; PIMPRCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS

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To reduce poverty and food insecurity in Africa requires raising productivity in agriculture. Systematic use of fertilizer and hybrid seed is a pathway to increased productivity, but adoption of these technologies remains low. We investigate whether the quality of agricultural inputs can help explain low take-up. Testing modern products purchased in local markets, we find that 30% of nutrient is missing in fertilizer, and hybrid maize seed is estimated to contain less than 50% authentic seeds. We document that such low quality results in low average returns. If authentic technologies replaced these low-quality products, however, average returns are high. To rationalize the findings, we calibrate a learning model using data from our agricultural trials. Because agricultural yields are noisy, farmers' ability to learn about quality is limited and this can help explain the low quality equilibrium we observe, but also why the market has not fully collapsed.

Maize (Zea mays L.) is an important smallholder crop in Uganda. Yields are low because of low soil fertility and little fertilizer use. Yield response to nutrient application and economically optimal rates (EOxR, where x = N, P, or K) and N use efficiency (NUE) were evaluated. Twenty‐two trials were conducted in four agroecological zones. Yield was consistently increased with N application. Mean maize yield with no N applied (N0) was 1.79 Mg ha−1 and increased by 120% with N application. Mean EONRs were 45 to 24 kg ha−1 N with fertilizer use cost to grain price ratios (CPs) of 10 to 30. With N applied, the mean increase in yield due to P application was 0.28 Mg ha−1 and mean EOPRs were 9 to 1 kg ha−1 P with CPs of 10 to 50. Yield was not increased with K application. Profitability was greater for N than P application. Mean aboveground biomass N with 0 and 150 kg ha−1 N applied was 46.3 and 94.3 kg ha−1, respectively. Mean N concentration and N harvest index at the EONR were 1.60 and 63.8%, respectively, and higher than for N0. Mean recovery efficiency, partial factor productivity, and agronomic efficiency declined with increasing N rate and were 66%, 86 kg kg−1, and 41 kg kg−1, respectively, at the EONR. Fertilizer N use can be very profitable, with high NUE, for smallholder maize production in Uganda, and the financial capacity of smallholders to use fertilizer will increase with reduced CP.

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