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Considering that most of the photovoltaic (PV) data are behind-the-meter (BTM), there is a great challenge to implement effective demand response projects and make a precise customer baseline (CBL) prediction. To solve the problem, this paper proposes a data-driven PV output power estimation approach using only net load data, temperature data, and solar irradiation data. We first obtain the relationship between delta actual load and delta temperature by calculating the delta net load from matching the net load of irradiation for an approximate day with the least squares method. Then we match and make a difference of the net load with similar electricity consumption behavior to establish the relationship between delta PV output power and delta irradiation. Finally, we get the PV output power and implement PV-load decoupling by modifying the relationship between delta PV and delta irradiation. The case studies verify the effectiveness of the approach and it provides an important reference to perform PV-load decoupling and CBL prediction in a residential distribution network with BTM PV systems.

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With the increasing penetration of wind power in renewable energy systems, it is important to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. However, wind power generation has great uncertainties which make high-quality interval prediction a challenge. Existing multi-objective optimization interval prediction methods do not consider the robustness of the model. Thus, trained models for wind speed interval prediction may not be optimal for future predictions. In this paper, the prediction interval coverage probability, the prediction interval average width, and the robustness of the model are used as three objective functions for determining the optimal model of short-term wind speed interval prediction using multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, a new Stochastic Sensitivity for Prediction Intervals (SS_PIs) is proposed in this work to measure the stability and robustness of the model for interval prediction. Using wind farm data from countries on two different continents as case studies, experimental results show that the proposed method yields better prediction intervals in terms of all metrics including prediction interval coverage probability (PICP), prediction interval normalized average width (PINAW) and SS_PIs. For example, at the prediction interval nominal confidence (PINC) of 85%, 90% and 95%, the proposed method has the best performance in all metrics of the USA wind farm dataset.

Accurate load forecasting is essential to the operation and planning of power systems and electricity markets. In this paper, an ensemble of radial basis function neural networks (RBFNNs) is proposed which is trained by minimizing the localized generalization error for shortterm and mid-term load forecasting. Exogenous features and features extracted from load series (with long shortterm memory networks and multi-resolution wavelet transform) in various timescales are used to train the ensemble of RBFNNs. Multiple RBFNNs are fused as an ensemble model with high generalization capability using a proposed weighted fusion method based on the localized generalization error model. Experimental results on three practical datasets show that compared with other forecasting methods, the proposed method reduces the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) by at least 0.12%, 8.46 (MW) 2 , 0.83 MW in mid-term load forecasting (i.e., to predict the daily peak load of next month), respectively, and reduces the MAPE, MSE by at least 0.19%, 2009.69 (MW) 2 and 0.30%, 3697.18 (MW) 2 in half-hour-ahead forecasting and day-ahead forecasting, respectively.