is a senior research officer at the ESRI. Frances McGinnity is an associate research professor at the ESRI, adjunct professor at Trinity College Dublin and visiting senior fellow at the Centre for the Analysis of Social Exclusion at the London School of Economics. Kayla Rush was an information officer in EMN Ireland at the ESRI.Predicting trends in applications into the future is difficult, and trends are largely dependent on the actions and responses of various actors, including governments in countries of origin and first asylum, international actors, other countries in the region and the Irish government. Some drivers are likely to be temporary (e.g., the COVID effect, the initial displacement from Ukraine and the impact of labourmarket shortages if proposed employment-permit reforms are adopted). Others may be longer-term (e.g., network effects, changing smuggler routes and potential deflection effects from the UK). The acknowledgement that factors driving international protection applications are largely outside the control of national governments means that flexible reception systems are key.Further research needs to be conducted to better understand the reasons behind the recent increase in applications in Ireland, including interviews with asylum applicants. There is a lack of research specific to the Irish context on this subject, meaning that the literature review had to draw conclusions from other contexts. Further research should examine the experiences of asylum applicants travelling to Ireland and applying for asylum here, and should conduct a more in-depth examination of Ireland in the context of broader EU trends.1 Figures for July, August and September 2022 are also included in this report, although the analysis remains focused on the first six months of 2022.

The aim of the European Migration Network (EMN) is to provide up-to-date, objective, reliable and comparable information on migration and asylum at Member State and EU levels with a view to supporting policymaking and informing the general public. The Irish National Contact Point of the European Migration Network, EMN Ireland, sits within the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

The mission of the Economic and Social Research Ins5tute (ESRI) is to advance evidence-based policymaking that supports economic sustainability and social progress in Ireland. ESRI researchers apply the highest standards of academic excellence to challenges facing policymakers, focusing on 12 areas of cri5cal importance to 21st-century Ireland.The Ins5tute was founded in 1960 by a group of senior civil servants led by Dr T.K. Whitaker, who iden5fied the need for independent and in-depth research analysis to provide a robust evidence base for policymaking in Ireland. Since then, the Ins5tute has remained commiMed to independent research and its work is free of any expressed ideology or poli5cal posi5on.The Ins5tute publishes all research reaching the appropriate academic standard, irrespec5ve of its findings or who funds the research. The quality of its research output is guaranteed by a rigorous peer-review process. ESRI researchers are experts in their fields and are commiMed to producing work that meets the highest academic standards and prac5ces. The work of the Ins5tute is disseminated widely in books, journal ar5cles and reports. ESRI publica5ons are available to download, free of charge, from its website. Addi5onally, ESRI staff communicate research findings at regular conferences and seminars.The ESRI is a company limited by guarantee, answerable to its members and governed by a council comprising 14 members who represent a cross-sec5on of ESRI members from academia, civil services, state agencies, businesses and civil society. The Ins5tute receives an annual grant-in-aid from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform to support the scien5fic and public-interest elements of the Ins5tute's ac5vi5es; the grant accounted for an average of 30 per cent of the Ins5tute's income over the life5me of the last research strategy. The remaining funding comes from research programmes supported by government departments and agencies, public bodies and compe55ve research programmes.