To evaluate the prognosis and prognostic factors of chronic pancreatitis, 84 patients with alcoholic chronic pancreatitis and 51 with nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis have been followed for 1-21 years (average of 7.1 years). The follow-up period was defined as the period from diagnosis to death in those who died and to the present in those still alive. The following conclusions were obtained. (1) Patients with alcoholic chronic pancreatitis showed a significantly higher mortality rate (26.2%) and cancer death rate (8.3%) than the age- and sex-matched population. In patients with nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis, however, the difference did not reach the level of statistical significance, although both rates tended to be higher. (2) Patients with alcoholic chronic pancreatitis showed a significantly poorer prognosis than those with nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis. (3) Frequent causes of death in chronic pancreatitis were cancer (11 cases) and diabetes-associated conditions (renal failure in three cases, intractable pneumonia in one, hypoglycemic shock in two, and myocardial infarction in two). Death directly from pancreatitis was observed in four. (4) Unfavorable prognostic factors in alcoholic chronic pancreatitis included heavy drinking, continuance of drinking after diagnosis, smoking, insulin-dependent diabetes, and an advanced age. In nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis, however, patients' age was the only significant prognostic factor; smoking did not reach the level of statistical significance, although it tended to lead to a poorer prognosis.
In order to elucidate mechanisms of protein plug formation, histochemical studies were performed on aggregates and protein plugs present in pancreatic juice. Pancreatic juice was obtained from three control subjects and five patients with chronic pancreatitis through endoscopic retrograde catheterization of the papilla. Specimens for staining were prepared in two ways: (1) fixed with 10 per cent formaldehyde, embedded in paraffin and sectioned, and (2) placed on slide glass and fixed with isopropylalcohol. Staining included hematoxylin-eosin, periodic-acid Schiff, von Kossa, alcian blue, toluidine blue and double staining with PAS and AB. The process of protein plug formation can be as follows: (1) a prerequisite for aggregate formation, consisting of clusters of desquamated epithelial cells, highly concentrated sulfated acidic mucopolysaccharide and neutral mucopolysaccharide, (2) formation of aggregates in which epithelial cells and amorphous substance are interlaced with developing fine reticular substance, (3) enlargement of aggregates by fusion with adjacent aggregates through bridging action of the reticular substance sprouting, like prickles, from their surface, and (4) "maturity" of aggregates, taking a three-dimensional form which result in a spherical, spheroidal or cylindrical protein plug.
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