How do contemporary fertility ideals, desires, and intentions relate to contemporary low fertility? At the empirical level the answer is straightforward: observed fertility is well below the levels of ideal family size and also usually well below respondents' desires and intentions. In fact, below-replacement fertility in many countries would disappear if respondents' fertility intentions were realized (Bongaarts 2001(Bongaarts , 2002Goldstein, Lutz, and Testa 2003).At the conceptual level, all behavioral models of contemporary low fertility feature choice: individuals choose to have children (Thomson and Brandreth 1995). Thus fertility intentions, if not ideals, hold the promise that actual fertility could mirror intentions over the long run, thus bringing observed fertility closer to replacement. Consistent with this view, Bongaarts (2002) argues that a substantial part of the discrepancy between aggregate fertility intentions and contemporary fertility levels can be accounted for by timing shifts, specifically the postponement of childbearing to later ages. Once this postponement abates, as it eventually must, 1 intentions and current behavior will be more similar. In addition, frustrated demand for children could encourage institutional adjustments that would allow childbearing to correspond to levels desired by women and couples, again raising fertility to levels that approximate intentions.Expressing an alternative view, Goldstein, Lutz, and Testa (2003) report that Germanspeaking areas of Europe now show levels of ideal and expected family size well below replacement levels (i.e., less than two children per woman), a pattern they suggest portends a permanent shift to sub-replacement fertility. They argue that the previous disjuncture between intentions and behavior in German-speaking counties, now evident in many other countries as well, represents "cultural lag." Specifically, women and couples act in accordance with contemporary antinatalist constraints and have few children, but continue for a period (a time lag) to express the prevailing cultural imperatives to be parents and to have at least two children. Younger cohorts, once they have lived much of their lives in a low-fertility setting, adopt the status quo as an expectation and thus express intentions (and ideals) that more closely correspond to contemporary behavior. Goldstein et al. (2003) hypothesize that fertility intentions and ideals in Italy, Spain, and elsewhere will soon decline further, creating greater symmetry between subreplacement fertility and subreplacement ideals and expectations. The suggestion that aggregate shifts in intentions can follow rather than precede behavioral shifts is not new (see Lee 1980;Westoff and Ryder 1977;Morgan 1981Morgan , 1982.Finally, Demeny (2003) argues that a wide gap between expressed preferences and behavior can persist indefinitely. Even if such preferences for a particular number of children are Direct all correspondence to S. Philip Morgan, Department of Sociology and Center for Demographic Studie...

Research on adolescent self-esteem indicates that adolescence is a time in which individuals experience important changes in their physical, cognitive, and social identities. Prior research suggests that there is a positive relationship between an adolescent's participation in structured extracurricular activities and well-being in a variety of domains, and some research indicates that these relationships may be dependent on the type of activities in which adolescents participate. Building on previous research, a growth-curve analysis was utilized to examine self-esteem trajectories from adolescence (age 14) to young adulthood (age 26). Using 3 waves of data from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n = 5,399; 47.8% male), the analysis estimated a hierarchical growth-curve model emphasizing the effects of age and type of school-based extracurricular activity portfolio, including sports and school clubs, on self-esteem. The results indicated that age had a linear relationship with self-esteem over time. Changes in both the initial level of self-esteem and the growth of self-esteem over time were significantly influenced by the type of extracurricular activity portfolio. The findings were consistent across race and sex. The results support the utility of examining the longitudinal impact of portfolio type on well-being outcomes.

The present study examines risk factors for running away and homelessness among a sample of more than 7,000 currently housed youth using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Structural equation modeling results revealed that those with greater levels of family instability and those who ran away at Wave 2 were significantly more likely to run away and/ or become homeless 5 years later at Wave 3. Family instability also had a significant indirect effect on running away and/or being homeless at Wave 3 through greater levels of problem behaviors and running away at Wave 2. Running away at Wave 1 was indirectly associated with running away and/or becoming homeless at Wave 3 through family instability, problem behavior, and Wave 2 running.

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