This research considered changes in monthly electricity generation and demand in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. Observed network electricity demand and generation type for the January–June 2020 period were compared to forecast values (using a triple exponential smoothing method) based on trends established from 2016 to 2019. Regional level electricity demand data showed little variation from expected trends for domestic energy users, but lower than expected business and industrial network demand, particularly in the 50–2000 kW cohort. Electricity demand was most likely to deviate from existing trends in May 2020, which is in-line with the voluntary lockdown activities. These results are consistent with observed patterns from other international studies into the impact of COVID-19 on electricity demand. Generation was found to be reduced in May and June of 2020, without significant impacts to the generation makeup, largely due to Japan’s positioning within a broader energy transition context. These findings validate previous studies and add to the broader discussions on drivers and the rationale for electricity demand behaviors between user scales. Previous studies examined the electricity demand reductions of full and partial lockdowns. This analysis adds to this discourse by documenting the impacts of a voluntary lockdown.

: The concept of disaster as a positive force for change seems intuitive, but is covered only occasionally in the energy transition literature. We review disaster risk and recovery literature to assess how these types of transformations may be different, and provide a change pathway within the popular Multi-Level Perspective framework. While incumbent systems are by definition stable (making change difficult), disaster can override these challenges by providing simultaneous disruption at all structure levels. By exceeding the capacity of the regime and its established processes and practices, disaster provides an opportunity to reformat social structures through reconstruction and recovery processes. Importantly, significant disruption has the ability to plasticize the landscape for a short timeframe, with potential change within a finite deviation from existing trends. During this disruptive period, the regime and landscape become co-dependent, with any meso-level void filled by a combination of new and reconstructed fragments, working to restore the stability of the foundation. The new regime must then satisfy the resultant set of socially dictated conditions set by the revised landscape to maintain the new structure. The challenge then is not to be restrained by swift recovery of the previous regime, and to form a new set of conditions to deliver improved outcomes that better balance the needs of natural and anthropogenic systems.

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