Anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds constitute the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying the radiative forcing of climate, and hinders our ability to determine Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas increases. Representation of aerosol–cloud interactions in global models is particularly challenging because these interactions occur on typically unresolved scales. Observational studies show influences of aerosol on clouds, but correlations between aerosol and clouds are insufficient to constrain aerosol forcing because of the difficulty in separating aerosol and meteorological impacts. In this commentary, we argue that this current impasse may be overcome with the development of approaches to conduct control experiments whereby aerosol particle perturbations can be introduced into patches of marine low clouds in a systematic manner. Such cloud perturbation experiments constitute a fresh approach to climate science and would provide unprecedented data to untangle the effects of aerosol particles on cloud microphysics and the resulting reflection of solar radiation by clouds. The control experiments would provide a critical test of high‐resolution models that are used to develop an improved representation aerosol–cloud interactions needed to better constrain aerosol forcing in global climate models.
Current impacts and escalating risks of climate change require strong and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. They also highlight the urgency of research to enhance safety for human and natural systems, especially for those most vulnerable. This is reflected in two recent US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine studies that recommended a national focus on advancing our understanding of how to manage urgent current and future climate risks, and the study of approaches for increasing the reflection of sunlight from the atmosphere to reduce global warming, a process referred to as sunlight reflection modification (SRM). Here, we build on these recommendations by proposing a roadmap approach for the planning, coordination, and delivery of research to support a robust scientific assessment of SRM to reduce near-term climate risks in a defined timeframe. This approach is designed to support the evaluation of SRM as a possible rapid, temporary, additive measure to reduce catastrophic impacts from anthropogenic climate change, not as a substitute for aggressive GHG mitigation. Assessing SRM is proposed to be undertaken in the context of climate hazard risks through 2050, weighing the impacts associated with likely climate change trajectories against scenarios of possible SRM implementations. Provided that research is undertaken openly and that scientific resources are made widely available, the transparency of the process and the evidence generated would contribute to the democratization of information, participation by diverse stakeholders, more informed decision-making, and better opportunities for all people to weigh SRM options against climate change risks.
As the world struggles to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C below pre-industrial temperatures, research into solar climate interventions that could temporarily offset some amount of greenhouse gas-driven global warming by reflecting more sunlight back out to space has gained prominence. These solar climate intervention techniques would aim to cool the Earth by injecting aerosols (tiny liquid or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere) into the upper atmosphere or into low-altitude marine clouds. In a new development, “cooling credits” are now being marketed that claim to offset a certain amount of greenhouse gas warming with aerosol-based cooling. The science of solar climate intervention is currently too uncertain and the quantification of effects insufficient for any such claims to be credible in the near term. More fundamentally, however, the environmental impacts of greenhouse gases and aerosols are too different for such credits to be an appropriate instrument for reducing climate risk even if scientific uncertainties were narrowed and robust monitoring systems put in place. While some form of commercial mechanism for solar climate intervention implementation, in the event it is used, is likely, “cooling credits” are unlikely to be a viable climate solution, either now or in the future.
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