Purpose – Globally expanding supply chains (SCs) have grown in complexity increasing the nature and magnitude of risks companies are exposed to. Effective methods to identify, model and analyze these risks are needed. Risk events often influence each other and rarely act independently. The SC risk management practices currently used are mostly qualitative in nature and are unable to fully capture this interdependent influence of risks. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology and tool developed for multi-tier SC risk modeling and analysis. Design/methodology/approach – SC risk taxonomy is developed to identify and document all potential risks in SCs and a risk network map that captures the interdependencies between risks is presented. A Bayesian Theory-based approach, that is capable of analyzing the conditional relationships between events, is used to develop the methodology to assess the influence of risks on SC performance Findings – Application of the methodology to an industry case study for validation reveals the usefulness of the Bayesian Theory-based approach and the tool developed. Back propagation to identify root causes and sensitivity of risk events in multi-tier SCs is discussed. Practical implications – SC risk management has grown in significance over the past decade. However, the methods used to model and analyze these risks by practitioners is still limited to basic qualitative approaches that cannot account for the interdependent effect of risk events. The method presented in this paper and the tool developed demonstrates the potential of using Bayesian Belief Networks to comprehensively model and study the effects or SC risks. The taxonomy presented will also be very useful for managers as a reference guide to begin risk identification. Originality/value – The taxonomy developed presents a comprehensive compilation of SC risks at organizational, industry, and external levels. A generic, customizable software tool developed to apply the Bayesian approach permits capturing risks and the influence of their interdependence to quantitatively model and analyze SC risks, which is lacking.

Purpose -True lean transformation has proved notoriously difficult for non-Toyota companies. One hypothesis is excessive focus on tools/techniques without building the necessary organizational culture. However, empirical evidence is not available to confirm (or refute) this hypothesis. The complex question of the relationship between an organization's culture and its ability to implement lean is a long-term effort. As a first step, the purpose of this paper is to offer the results of a survey conducted to discover the relative (in)consistency of lean cultures in terms of values held explicitly. Design/methodology/approach -A survey tool was developed to compare what employees of lean (or attempting to be lean) organizations say explicitly about what their culture values. The Toyota Way, considered by Toyota as guiding its values, was used as the basis to develop the survey which was administered to individuals in several different organizations. Findings -A higher degree of lean implementation in a company was assumed to show more consistent organizational values (in explicit form). However, the responses varied even from the company considered a leader in lean implementation. Though not conclusive, these preliminary findings suggest that the relationship between cultural type, explicit values and successful lean practice should be examined further. Originality/value -No empirical studies have investigated the role of culture in success with lean transformations. This paper presents an initial attempt at addressing that issue with a tool developed to evaluate what an organization's culture says its values are, in terms of what is important for lean implementation.

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