Abnormal esophageal pH is common in patients with extraesophageal symptoms. Most have only mild (46%) to moderate (31%) reflux with a low prevalence of esophagitis (18%) or Barrett's esophagus (0.8%). The degree of esophageal acid reflux cannot be predicted from baseline presence or absence of typical GERD symptoms.
Since September 11, 2001, the United States has invested a significant amount of resources into improving aviation security operations, with the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) assuming the responsibilities for security policy-making at commercial airports. This paper reviews the literature that supports policies for risk-based passenger screening procedures and chronicles the analytical analysis leading up to the launch (in October 2011) of the TSA Precheck program, as a first step toward implementing a risk-based security strategy for passenger and baggage screening. Multi-level passenger prescreening is the basis of the A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t mathematical framework behind TSA Precheck; the framework provides a prescriptive control of security operations in settings with limited resources. TSA Precheck assigns each passenger to a risk group, based on the initial perceived risk level (assessed in the prescreening stage), and then calibrates the security measures to mitigate the risk associated with each group. With passengers arriving in real-time and the order of their arrivals uncertain, the resource utilization problem is solved by dynamic programming. A numerical comparison between a risk-based and an equal-risk (i.e., non-risk-based) security model is presented to quantify the benefits of risk-based security.
This article presents a public value measure that can be used to aid executives in the public sector to better assess policy decisions and maximize value to the American people. Using Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs as an example, we first identify the basic components of public value. We then propose a public value account to quantify the outcomes of various risk scenarios, and we determine the certain equivalent of several important TSA programs. We illustrate how this proposed measure can quantify the effects of two main challenges that government organizations face when conducting enterprise risk management: (1) short-term versus long-term incentives and (2) avoiding potential negative consequences even if they occur with low probability. Finally, we illustrate how this measure enables the use of various tools from decision analysis to be applied in government settings, such as stochastic dominance arguments and certain equivalent calculations. Regarding the TSA case study, our analysis demonstrates the value of continued expansion of the TSA trusted traveler initiative and increasing the background vetting for passengers who are afforded expedited security screening.
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