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Water scarcity, land use conversion and cultural and ecosystem changes threaten the way of life for traditional irrigation communities of the semi-arid southwestern United States. Traditions are strong, yet potential upheaval is great in these communities that rely on acequia irrigation systems. Acequias are ancient ditch systems brought from the Iberian Peninsula to the New World over 400 years ago; they are simultaneously gravity flow water delivery systems and shared water governance institutions. Acequias have survived periods of drought and external shocks from changing economics, demographics, and OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2012, 4 2999 resource uses. Now, climate change and urbanization threaten water availability, ecosystem functions, and the acequia communities themselves. Do past adaptive practices hold the key to future sustainability, or are new strategies required? To explore this issue we translated disciplinary understanding into a uniform format of causal loop diagrams to conceptualize the subsystems of the entire acequia-based human-natural system. Four subsystems are identified in this study: hydrology, ecosystem, land use/economics, and sociocultural. Important linkages between subsystems were revealed as well as variables indicating community cohesion (e.g., total irrigated land, intensity of upland grazing, mutualism). Ongoing work will test the conceptualizations with field data and modeling exercises to capture tipping points for non-sustainability and thresholds for sustainable water use and community longevity.

We modeled current and future distribution of suitable habitat for the talus-obligate montane mammal Ochotona princeps (American pika) across the western USA under increases in temperature associated with contemporary climate change, to: a) compare forecasts using only climate variables vs using those plus habitat considerations; b) identify possible patterns of range collapse (center vs margins, and large-vs small-sized patches); and c) compare conservation and management implications of changes at two taxonomic resolutions, and using binned-vs binaryprobability maps. We used MaxEnt to analyze relationships between occurrence records and climatic variables to develop a bioclimatic-envelope model, which we refi ned by masking with a deductive appropriate-habitat fi lter based on suitable land-cover types. We used this fi nal species-distribution model to predict distribution of suitable habitat under range-wide temperature increases from 1 to 7 ° C, in 1 ° C increments; we also compared these results to distribution under IPCC-forecasted climates for 2050 and 2080. Th ough all currently recognized lineages and traditionally defi ned subspecies were predicted to lose increasing amounts of habitat as temperatures rose, the most-dramatic range losses were predicted to occur among traditional subspecies. Nineteen of the 31 traditional US pika subspecies were predicted to lose Ͼ 98% of their suitable habitat under a 7 ° C increase in the mean temperature of the warmest quarter of the year, and lineages were predicted to lose 88-95% of suitable habitat. Under a 4 ° C increase, traditional subspecies averaged a predicted 73% (range ϭ 44-99%) reduction. Th e appropriate-habitat fi lter removed 40 -6% of the predicted climatically suitable pixels, in a stepped and monotonically decreasing fashion as predicted temperatures rose. Predicted range collapse proceeded until only populations in island-biogeographic ' mainlands ' remained, which were not in the geographic range center. We used this model system to illustrate possible distributional shifts under stepped changes in biologically relevant aspects of climate, importance of land cover and taxonomic level in species-distribution forecasts, and impact of using a single threshold vs multiple categories of persistence probability in predicted range maps; we encourage additional research to further investigate the generality of these patterns.

Abstract. Southwestern US irrigated landscapes are facing upheaval due to water scarcity and land use conversion associated with climate change, population growth, and changing economics. In the traditionally irrigated valleys of northern New Mexico, these stresses, as well as instances of community longevity in the face of these stresses, are apparent. Human systems have interacted with hydrologic processes over the last 400 years in river-fed irrigated valleys to create linked systems. In this study, we ask if concurrent data from multiple disciplines could show that human-adapted hydrologic and socioeconomic systems have created conditions for resilience. Various types of resiliencies are evident in the communities. Traditional local knowledge about the hydrosocial cycle of community water management and ability to adopt new water management practices is a key response to disturbances such as low water supply from drought. Livestock producers have retained their irrigated land by adapting: changing from sheep to cattle and securing income from outside their livestock operations. Labor-intensive crops decreased as off-farm employment opportunities became available. Hydrologic resilience of the system can be affected by both human and natural elements. We find, for example, that there are multiple hydrologic benefits of traditional irrigation system water seepage: it recharges the groundwater that recharges rivers, supports threatened biodiversity by maintaining riparian vegetation, and ameliorates impacts of climate change by prolonging streamflow hydrographs. Human decisions to transfer water out of agriculture or change irrigation management, as well as natural changes such as longterm drought or climate change, can result in reduced seepage and the benefits it provides. We have worked with the communities to translate the multidisciplinary dimensions of these systems into a common language of causal loop diagrams, which form the basis for modeling future scenarios to identify thresholds and tipping points of sustainability. Early indications are that these systems, though not immune to upheaval, have astonishing resilience.

Agriculture-based irrigation communities of northern New Mexico have survived for centuries despite the arid environment in which they reside. These irrigation communities are threatened by regional population growth, urbanization, a changing demographic profile, economic development, climate change, and other factors. Within this context, we investigated the extent to which community resource management practices centering on shared resources (e.g., water for agricultural in the floodplains and grazing resources in the uplands) and mutualism (i.e., shared responsibility of local residents to maintaining traditional irrigation policies and upholding cultural and spiritual observances) embedded within the community structure influence acequia function. We used a system dynamics modeling approach as an interdisciplinary platform to integrate these systems, specifically the relationship between community structure and resource management. In this paper we describe the background and context of acequia communities in northern New Mexico and the challenges they face. We formulate a Dynamic Hypothesis capturing the endogenous feedbacks driving acequia community vitality. Development of the model centered on major stock-and-flow components, including linkages for hydrology, ecology, community, and economics. Calibration metrics were used for model evaluation, including statistical correlation of observed and predicted values and Theil inequality statistics. Results indicated that the model reproduced trends exhibited by the observed system. Sensitivity analyses of socio-cultural processes identified absentee decisions, cumulative income effect on time in agriculture, and land use preference due to time allocation, community demographic effect, effect of employment on participation, and farm size effect as key determinants of system behavior and response. Sensitivity analyses of biophysical parameters revealed that several key parameters (e.g., acres per animal unit or percentage of normal acequia ditch seepage) which created less variable system responses but which utilized similar pathways to that of the socio-cultural processes (e.g., socio-cultural or physical parameter change → agricultural profit → time in spent in agriculture → effect on socio-cultural or physical processes). These processes also linked through acequia mutualism to create the greatest variability in system outputs compared to the remainder of tests. Results also point to the important role of community mutualism in sustaining linkages between natural and human systems that increase resilience to stressors. Future work will explore scenario development and testing, integration with upland and downstream models, and comparative analyses between acequia communities with distinct social and landscape characteristics.