Abstract:In the analysis of the potential of applying models to estimate threat of heat waves in Poland up to the end of the 21st century, two discrepant climate change models: the MPI-M-REMO-ECHAM5 and DMI-HIRHAM5-ARPEGE have been used. In this regard, the maximum air temperature was analysed. The accepted definition of a heat wave was 3 and 5 consecutive days of temperatures ≥30°C. According to the more realistic ARPEGE model, after 2040, the number of 3-day heat waves will rise by 370% and after 2070 -460%. In Warsaw, the extent of possible mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease in heat waves amounted to +134% in the period after 2070 according to the ARPEGE model. Key wordsclimate models • heat waves • modelled air temperature • mortality • Poland Geographia Polonica 2013, 86, 4, pp. 295-311 Geographia Polonica 2013, 86, 4, 295-311 296Magdalena Kuchcik a significantly better space resolution for country-sized or regional estimations. For instance, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report summarizes data from 21 different coupled atmosphereocean global climate models -GCMs (Meehl et al. 2007). Similarly, regional projections are increasingly based on ensembles of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Over Europe, this approach has been pioneered in the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects (Christensen & Christensen 2007; Déqué 2009).One of the most possible impacts of climate change due to well documented changes in extreme weather and climate events (IPCC 2012) is a very likely (90-100% probability) increase in the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves over most land areas (in Europe the projection of those phenomena is -likely: 66-100% probability). Also there will be a virtually certain (99-100% probability) increase in the frequency and magnitude of warm days and nights on a global scale (in Europe accordingly -very likely).Heat waves are several day or longer periods of exceptionally hot weather, where there is often a sudden rise in mortality rate, particularly among those with cardiovascular disease. Above all, it is caused by excessive stress on the thermoregulatory and cardiovascular systems caused by the body's adaptation processes to high air temperature. Dilation of the blood vessels in a hot environment leads to a rise in the velocity of blood flow and pulse rate, a drop in blood pressure, a rise in blood volume and thus an overall weakening of the body. Heat waves which last for a few days lead to a decrease in haemoglobin, which carries oxygen, an increase in respiratory rate, ie pulmonary ventilation, which leads to aggravation of respiratory diseases (Klonowicz & Kozłowski 1970; Jankowiak 1976). If high air temperature is accompanied by a large inflow of direct sunlight and high vapour pressure then a dangerous increase in systolic and diastolic blood pressure can take place (Biernacki et al. 1965; Zawiślak 1997; Błażejczyk 1998).The first scientific reports on heat waves and an accompanying rise in...

We investigated the cardiorespiratory health effects of smoke exposure from the 1997 Southeast Asian Forest Fires among persons who were hospitalized in the region of Kuching, Malaysia. We selected admissions to seven hospitals in the Kuching region from a database of all hospital admissions in the state of Sarawak during January 1, 1995 and December 31, 1998. For several cardiorespiratory disease classifications we used Holt-Winters time-series analyses to determine whether the total number of monthly hospitalizations during the forest fire period (August 1 to October 31, 1997), or post-fire period (November 1, 1997 to December 31, 1997) exceeded forecasted estimates established from a historical baseline period of January 1, 1995 to July 31, 1997. We also identified age-specific cohorts of persons whose members were admitted for specific cardiorespiratory problems during January 1 to July 31 of each year (1995--1997). We compared Kaplan-Meier survival curves of time to first readmission for the 1997 cohorts (exposed to the forest fire smoke) with the survival curves for the 1995 and 1996 cohorts (not exposed, pre-fire cohorts). The time-series analyses indicated that statistically significant fire-related increases were observed in respiratory hospitalizations, specifically those for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma. The survival analyses indicated that persons over age 65 years with previous hospital admissions for any cause (chi2(1df) = 5.98, p = 0.015), any cardiorespiratory disease (chi2(1df) = 5.3, p = 0.02), any respiratory disease (chi2(1df) = 7.8, p = 0.005), or COPD (chi2(1df) = 3.9, p = 0.047), were significantly more likely to be rehospitalized during the follow-up period in 1997 than during the follow-up periods in the pre-fire years of 1995 or 1996. The survival functions of the exposed cohorts resumed similar trajectories to unexposed cohorts during the post-fire period of November 1, 1997 to December 31, 1998. Communities exposed to forest fire smoke during the Southeast Asian forest fires of 1997 experienced short-term increases in cardiorespiratory hospitalizations. When an air quality emergency is anticipated, persons over age 65 with histories of respiratory hospitalizations should be preidentified from existing hospitalization records and given priority access to interventions.

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