Hunt, G. L., Coyle, K. O., Eisner, L. B., Farley, E. V., Heintz, R. A., Mueter, F., Napp, J. M., Overland, J. E., Ressler, P. H., Salo, S., and Stabeno, P. J. 2011. Climate impacts on eastern Bering Sea foodwebs: a synthesis of new data and an assessment of the Oscillating Control Hypothesis. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1230–1243. Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is an important component of the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem and subject to major fisheries. The Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH) predicted that recruitment of pollock year classes should be greatest in years with early ice retreat and late blooms in warm water, because more energy would flow into the pelagic (vs. benthic) community. The OCH further predicted that, with pollock population growth, there should be a shift from bottom-up to top-down regulation. New data support the predictions that in those years with early ice retreat, more primary production accrues to the pelagic compartment and that large numbers of age-0 pollock survive to summer. However, in these years, production of large crustacean zooplankton is reduced, depriving age-0 pollock of lipid-rich prey in summer and autumn. Consequently, age-0 pollock energy reserves (depot lipids) are low and predation on them is increased as fish switch to age-0 pollock from zooplankton. The result is weak recruitment of age-1 recruits the following year. A revised OCH indicates bottom-up constraints on pollock recruitment in very warm periods. Prolonged warm periods with decreased ice cover will likely cause diminished pollock recruitment and catches relative to recent values.

Concern about impacts of climate change in the Bering Sea prompted several research programs to elucidate mechanistic links between climate and ecosystem responses. Following a detailed literature review, Hunt et al. (2011) (Deep-Sea Res. II, 49, 2002) developed a conceptual framework, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), linking climaterelated changes in physical oceanographic conditions to stock recruitment using walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) as a model. The OCH conceptual model treats zooplankton as a single box, with reduced zooplankton production during cold conditions, producing bottom-up control of apex predators and elevated zooplankton production during warm periods leading to top-down control by apex predators. A recent warming trend followed by rapid cooling on the Bering Sea shelf permitted testing of the OCH. During warm years (2003-06), euphausiid and Calanus marshallae populations declined, post-larval pollock diets shifted from a mixture of large zooplankton and small copepods to almost exclusively small copepods, and juvenile pollock dominated the diets of large predators. With cooling from 2006-09, populations of large zooplankton increased, post-larval pollock consumed greater proportions of C. marshallae and other large zooplankton, and juvenile pollock virtually disappeared from the diets of large pollock and salmon. These shifts in energy flow were accompanied by large declines in pollock stocks attributed to poor recruitment between 2001 and 2005. Observations presented here indicate the need for revision of the OCH to account for shifts in energy flow through differing food-web pathways due to warming and cooling on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf.

ABSTRACT. We tested the hypothesis that the spatial distributions of foraging least, crested and parakeet auklets (Aethia pusilla, A. cristatella and A. psittacula, respectively) in the shallow passes of the Aleutian Islands would be determined by physical mechanisms that control near-surface prey concentrations. We recorded currents using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler, volume scattering using 200 and 420 kHz scientific echosounders, and the numbers of foraging birds. Zooplankton were sampled using a multiple opening/closing net and environmental sampling system (MOCNESS). Prey choice of birds was ascertained by collecting foraging birds and examining their stomach contents. Most sampling occurred between 8 July and 6 August 1993, when we conducted 50 passages along a transect that crossed a sill between Unalga and Kavalga Islands, western Aleutian Islands, thereby samplinq the loraglng activity ot auklets at a variety of times of day and tidal phases. We found that the abundance of foraging individuals of each of the 3 auklet species was a function of tidal speed. Auklet species were selective about the species of prey taken. Regardless of tidal direct~on, crested auklets foraged on euphausiids upwclled on the upstream side of the pass, whereas least auklets consumed copepods concentrated in near-surface convergences on the downstream side. Parakeet auklets foraged over the top of the pass and took fish and invertebrates. Tidal speed and direction influenced the distance between the peak numbers of some, but not all, species of auklets. Auklet prey preferences dictated where they foraged in the pass and the physical mechanisms exploited for successful foraging. Thus, in this instance, resource partitioning by these closely related planktivores was enhanced by a spatial segregation forced by the physical processes that enhanced the availability of prey. Our findings emphasize the important role of physical processes in the structuring of marine communities.

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Anomalies in the regional weather over the south‐eastern Bering Sea during spring and summer of 1997 resulted in significant differences in nutrient availability, phytoplankton species composition, and zooplankton abundance over the continental shelf as compared with measurements in the 1980s. Calm winds and the reduction of cloud cover in spring and summer produced a very shallow mixed layer in which nitrate and silicate were depleted after an April diatom bloom. High submarine light levels allowed subsequent phytoplankton growth below the pycnocline and eventual depletion of nitrate from the water column to depths of 70 m or more. Thus, total new production during 1997 may have exceeded that of previous years when nitrate was not depleted below the pycnocline. A bloom of the coccolithophorid, Emiliania huxleyi, was observed in early July in the warm, nutrient‐depleted waters over the middle and inner shelf. Emiliania huxleyi concentrations reached 4.5 × 106 cells L–1 by September, and the bloom persisted through the autumn. There was evidence for increased abundance of some species of copepods in 1997 as compared with data from the middle domain in June 1981. The abundance of adult and juvenile euphausiids in 1997 was statistically similar to values measured in 1980 and 1981. However, near‐surface swarms were rarely observed on the inner shelf in August–September 1997. Lack of euphausiid availability in the upper water column may partially explain the August–September mass mortality of planktivorous short‐tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris) observed on the inner shelf.