Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18–34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26–29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV IMPORTANCEThe ongoing outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has caused 701 laboratory-confirmed cases to date, with 249 fatalities. Although bats and dromedary camels have been identified as potential MERS-CoV hosts, the virus has so far not been isolated from any species other than humans. The inability of MERS-CoV to infect commonly used animal models, such as hamster, mice, and ferrets, indicates the presence of a species barrier. We show that the MERS-CoV receptor DPP4 plays a pivotal role in the observed species tropism of MERS-CoV and subsequently identified the amino acids in DPP4 responsible for this restriction. Using a combined modeling and experimental approach, we predict that, based on the ability of MERS-CoV to utilize the DPP4 of common Middle East livestock species, such as camels, goats, sheep, and cows, these form a potential MERS-CoV intermediate host reservoir species.

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.Author SummaryUnderstanding the drivers of recent Zika, dengue, and chikungunya epidemics is a major public health priority. Temperature may play an important role because it affects mosquito transmission, affecting mosquito development, survival, reproduction, and biting rates as well as the rate at which they acquire and transmit viruses. Here, we measure the impact of temperature on transmission by two of the most common mosquito vector species for these viruses, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. We integrate data from several laboratory experiments into a mathematical model of temperature-dependent transmission, and find that transmission peaks at 26-29°C and can occur between 18-34°C. Statistically comparing model predictions with recent observed human cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika across the Americas suggests an important role for temperature, and supports model predictions. Using the model, we predict that most of the tropics and subtropics are suitable for transmission in many or all months of the year, but that temperate areas like most of the United States are only suitable for transmission for a few months during the summer (even if the mosquito vector is present).

The emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) highlights the zoonotic potential of Betacoronaviruses. Investigations into the origin of MERS-CoV have focused on two potential reservoirs: bats and camels. Here, we investigated the role of bats as a potential reservoir for MERS-CoV. In vitro, the MERS-CoV spike glycoprotein interacted with Jamaican fruit bat (Artibeus jamaicensis) dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) receptor and MERS-CoV replicated efficiently in Jamaican fruit bat cells, suggesting there is no restriction at the receptor or cellular level for MERS-CoV. To shed light on the intrinsic host-virus relationship, we inoculated 10 Jamaican fruit bats with MERS-CoV. Although all bats showed evidence of infection, none of the bats showed clinical signs of disease. Virus shedding was detected in the respiratory and intestinal tract for up to 9 days. MERS-CoV replicated transiently in the respiratory and, to a lesser extent, the intestinal tracts and internal organs; with limited histopathological changes observed only in the lungs. Analysis of the innate gene expression in the lungs showed a moderate, transient induction of expression. Our results indicate that MERS-CoV maintains the ability to replicate in bats without clinical signs of disease, supporting the general hypothesis of bats as ancestral reservoirs for MERS-CoV.