BackgroundThe aim of this study was to compare the cost effectiveness of the current Irish programme of universal BCG vaccination of infants versus a programme which considered selectively vaccinating high risk infants using decision analytical modelling.MethodsThe efficacy of the BCG vaccine was re-evaluated to inform a decision analytical model constructed to follow a birth cohort of vaccinated and unvaccinated infants over a 15 year time horizon. The number of life years gained (LYG) was the primary outcome measure and this was compared to the net cost of the vaccination strategies.ResultsIn the base case analysis, the incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the universal strategy and selective strategy vs no vaccination were €204,373/LYG and €143,233/LYG respectively. When comparing the incremental difference in moving from the universal to the selective strategy, the selective strategy costs €1,055,692 less per 4.8 life years lost per birth cohort. One way sensitivity analyses highlighted that a move from the universal to the selective strategy was particularly sensitive to the estimate of vaccine efficacy against deaths, the cost of administering the vaccine and the multiplier used to apportion risk of contracting tuberculosis. Probabilistic analysis suggested that a move from a universal based strategy to a selective based strategy could be deemed cost effective (probability of cost effectiveness is 76.8 %).ConclusionThe results of the study support the protective effect of the BCG vaccine in infants and quantified the cost effectiveness of the current BCG vaccination strategy and the decremental difference in moving to a selective strategy. This analysis highlights that the additional protection offered by the universal vaccination strategy is small compared to that of the selective strategy. Consideration should therefore be given to the implementation of a selective vaccination strategy, and diverting resources to improve TB case management and control.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13690-016-0141-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Several reports have suggested that there is an increasing incidence of infantile hypertrophic pyloric stenosis (IHPS). We examined the incidence of IHPS in a stable population in the West of Ireland over a ten year period (1981-1990). During the 10 years of the study the number of live births per year did not alter significantly. The incidence of IHPS increased significantly from 0.87/1000 live births in 1981 to 5.10/1000 in 1990 (p < 0.001, Student's test), peaking in 1989 at 6.8/1000. There was no statistical correlation between the increasing incidence and feeding habits, birth rank, family history or gender distribution. The reason(s) for this increase remain unclear.

In the absence of changes to other aspects of TB control, a switch to selective vaccination will result in increased cases of childhood TB. Although not considered cost-effective, selective vaccination may be preferable to no vaccination until other changes to TB control may be implemented to reduce the risk of TB in children.

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