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One factor preventing the wider acceptance of school-based curriculum development and assessment is the problem of comparing performances of different students, in different schools, in different areas of study. A framework is needed to describe the complexity of learning outcomes in a language that is generally applicable across the curriculum. Such a framework is provided by the SOLO taxonomy which describes the growth in complexity of performance in many learning tasks, from the earliest engagement in the task to expertise. Learning grows along at least two dimensions: (a) the level of abstraction, or mode, of the contents learned (five such modes are recognisable from infancy to adulthood); and (b) the cycle of increasing complexity that learning undergoes within any given mode. It is possible, by specifying both the mode or modes to be used and the level of the learning cycle to be attained, to state the desired level of performance in many important curriculum topics in a way that can be used (a) for criterion-referenced assessment in particular subjects, and (b) for discussing comparable levels of attainment across different subjects and different schools.

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This paper presents an analysis of three questionnaire items which explore students' understanding of chance measurement in relation to the development of ideas of formal probability. The items were administered to 1014 students in Grades 3, 6 and 9 in Tasmanian schools. The analysis, using the NUDIST text analysis software, was based on the multimodal functioning SOLO model. An analysis of the results and a developmental model for understanding chance measurement are presented, along with implications for curriculum and teaching practice.