There is a rapid transformation afoot in the rice value chain in Asia. The upstream is changing quickly-farmers are undertaking capital-led intensification and participating in burgeoning markets for land rental, fertilizer and pesticides, irrigation water, and seed, and shifting from subsistence to small commercialized farms; in some areas landholdings are concentrating. Midstream, in wholesale and milling, there is a quiet revolution underway, with thousands of entrepreneurs investing in equipment, increasing scale, diversifying into higher quality, and the segments are undergoing consolidation and vertical coordination and integration. Mills, especially in China, are packaging and branding, and building agent networks in wholesale markets, and large mills are building direct relationships with supermarkets. The downstream retail segment is undergoing a "supermarket revolution," again with the lead in change in China. In most cases the government is not playing a direct role in the market, but enabling this transformation through infrastructural investment. The transformation appears to be improving food security for cities by reducing margins, offering lower consumer rice prices, and increasing quality and diversity of rice. This paper discusses findings derived from unique stacked surveys of all value chain segments in seven zones, more and less developed, around Bangladesh, China, India, and Vietnam.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to assess the potential economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's macroeconomy and agri-food system and provide policy recommendations to stimulate economic growth and agri-food system development.Design/methodology/approachAn economy-wide multisector multiplier model built on China's most recent social accounting matrix (SAM) for 2017 with 149 economic sectors is used to assess the impact of COVID-19 on China's macroeconomy and agri-food system. SAM multiplier analysis focuses on supply chain linkages and captures the complexity of an interconnected economy.FindingsThe paper finds that both the macroeconomy and agri-food systems are hit significantly by COVID-19. There are three main findings. First, affected by COVID-19, GDP decreased by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with that in 2019, while the economic loss of the agri-food system is equivalent to 7% of its value added (about RMB 0.26 trillion). More than 46m agri-food system workers (about 27% of total employment) lost their jobs to COVID-19 in the lockdown phase. The COVID-19 affects the employment of unskilled labor more than that of skilled labor. Second, when the economy starts to recover during the second and third quarters, the growth rate in the value added of the agri-food system turns positive but still modest. Many jobs resume during the period, but the level of agri-food system employment continues to be lower than the base. The agri-food system employment recovery is slower than that of other sectors largely due to the sluggish recovery of restaurants. Agri-food system employment drops by 8.6m, which accounts for about 33% of the total jobs lost. Third, although the domestic economy is expected to be normal in the fourth quarter, external demand still faces uncertainties due to the global pandemic. The agri-food system is projected to grow by 1.1% annually in 2020 with resuming export demand, while only by 0.4% without resuming export demand. These rates are much lower than an annual growth rate of 4.3% for the agri-food system in 2019. The results also show that, without resuming export demand, China's total economy will grow less than 1% in 2020, while, with export demand resumed, the growth rate rises to 1.7%. These rates are much lower than an annual GDP growth rate of 6.1% in 2019.Practical implicationsThe results show that continuously reducing economic dependency on exports and stimulating domestic demand are key areas that require policy support. The agri-food system can play an important role in supporting broad economic growth and job creation as SMEs are major part of the AFS. Job creation requires policies to promote innovation by entrepreneurs who run numerous SMEs in China.Originality/valueThis paper represents the first systematic study assessing the impact of COVID-19 on China's agri-food system in terms of value added and employment. The assessment considers three phases of lockdown, recovery and normal phases in order to capture the full potential cost of COVID-19.

The outbreak of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) has significantly affected China and beyond. How to effectively control such epidemic has gradually become a global issue. This paper reviews the economic impact of major epidemics such as SARS, H1N1, and Ebola at the micro-, sector-, and macro-level. The challenge of effective epidemic control is to achieve a balance between viral transmission reduction and economic cost. This paper then summarizes three main methods to evaluate the effectiveness of several control policies. We also find that the adequacy and authenticity of information disclosure is of great importance to minimize economic loss, as either public panic due to overestimation or lack of public awareness due to underestimation can cause additional negative economic impacts. Accurate and transparent disclosure of information plays a crucial role associated with fighting against the epidemic. Finally, the paper puts forward a number of policy recommendations to minimize economic loss while controlling the spread of COVID-19.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate e-commerce as a new means to ensure that the urban demand for food can be met during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Because a number of COVID-19 e-commerce models have emerged, this paper discusses whether and (if so) why and how e-commerce can ensure the food supply for urban residents if social distancing becomes a norm and the transport and logistics systems are hindered.Design/methodology/approachThis study used qualitative research methods following the lack of empirical data. The authors referred to relevant literature, statistical data and official reports and comprehensively described the importance of e-commerce in ensuring the safety of food supply to Chinese urban residents under the impact of the epidemic. Corresponding to the traditional case study, this study presented a Chinese case on ensuring food supply through e-commerce during an epidemic.FindingsThe authors found that three e-commerce models played a substantial role in preventing the spread of the epidemic and ensuring the food supply for urban residents. The nationwide e-commerce platforms under market leadership played their roles by relying on the sound infrastructure of large cities and its logistics system was vulnerable to the epidemic. In the worst-affected areas, particularly in closed and isolated communities, the local e-commerce model was the primary model, supplemented by the unofficial e-commerce model based on social relations. Through online booking, centralized procurement and community distribution, the risk of cross infection could be effectively reduced and the food demand could be effectively satisfied. The theoretical explanation further verifies that, apart from e-commerce, a governance system that integrates the government, e-commerce platform, community streets and the unofficial guanxi also impels the success of these models.Originality/valueLessons from China are drawn for other countries struggling to deliver food to those in need under COVID-19. The study not only provides a solution that will ensure constant food supply to urban residents under the COVID-19 epidemic but also provides some reference for the maintenance of the food system of urban residents under the impact of a globalization-related crisis in future.

No abstract