Probabilistic modeling of lava flow hazard is a two-stage process. The first step is an estimation of the possible locations of future eruptive vents followed by an estimation of probable areas of inundation by lava flows issuing from these vents. We present a methodology using this two-stage approach to estimate lava flow hazard at a nuclear power plant site near Aragats, a Quaternary volcano in Armenia.

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'Pliocene-Quaternary volcanic rocks of NW Armenia : magmatism and lithospheric dynamics within an active orogenic plateau. ', Lithos.,[180][181] Further information on publisher's website:http://dx.doi.org/10. 1016/j.lithos.2013.05.005 Publisher's copyright statement: NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Lithos. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A denitive version was subsequently published in Lithos, 180-181, 2013Lithos, 180-181, , 10.1016Lithos, 180-181, /j.lithos.2013 Additional information: Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details.