In this paper, we study a mathematical model investigating the impact of unreported cases of the COVID-19 in three North African countries: Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco. To understand how the population respects the restriction of population mobility implemented in each country, we use Google and Apple’s mobility reports. These mobility reports help to quantify the effect of the population movement restrictions on the evolution of the active infection cases. We also approximate the number of the population infected unreported, the proportion of those that need hospitalization, and estimate the end of the epidemic wave. Moreover, we use our model to estimate the second wave of the COVID-19 Algeria and Morocco and to project the end of the second wave. Finally, we suggest some additional measures that can be considered to reduce the burden of the COVID-19 and would lead to a second wave of the spread of the virus in these countries.

International audienceIn an epidemiological model, time spent in one compartment is often modeled by a delay in the model. In general the presence of delay in differential equations can change the stability of an equilibrium to instability and causes the appearance of oscillatory solutions. In this paper we consider a SIS epidemiological model with demographic effects: birth, mortality and mortality caused by infection. The delay is the period of infection. We define the concept of oscillation in the sense that solutions of the model studied fluctuate around a steady state. Our goal is to show that in this model, there are oscillating solutions for certain parameters values. We determine a large set of initial data for which solutions of this model are slowly oscillating

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This paper aims to study the global stability of an Ebola virus epidemic model. Although this epidemic ended in September 2015, it devastated several West African countries and mobilized the international community. With the recent cases of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the threat of the reappearance of this fatal disease remains. Therefore, we are obligated to be prepared for a possible re-emerging of the disease. In this work, we investigate the global stability analysis via the theory of cooperative systems, and we determine the conditions that lead to global stability diseases free and endemic equilibrium.

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