No abstract

Predicting the export price of shrimp is important for Vietnam’s fisheries. It not only promotes product quality but also helps policy makers determine strategies to develop the national shrimp industry. Competition in global markets is considered to be an important factor, one that significantly influences price. In this study, we predicted trends in the export price of Vietnamese shrimp based on competitive information from six leading exporters (China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Ecuador, and Chile) who, alongside Vietnam, also export shrimp to the US. The prediction was based on a dataset collected from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) (May-1995 to May-2019) that included price, required farming certificates, and disease outbreak data. A super learner technique, which combined 10 single algorithms, was used to make predictions in selected base periods (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). It was found that the super learner obtained results in all base periods that were more accurate and stable than any candidate algorithms. The impacts of variables in the predictive model were interpreted by a SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to determine their influence on the price of Vietnamese exports. The price of Indian, Thai, and Chinese exports highlighted the advantages of being a World Trade Organization member and the disadvantages of the prevalence of shrimp disease in Vietnam, which has had a significant impact on the Vietnamese shrimp export price.

Shrimp products play a vital role in the international trade of fisheries products. The main suppliers for shrimp products are developing nations such as Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh and other countries in Southeast Asia. Among them, Vietnam is one of the largest exporters of shrimp products, and developed countries, especially the United States, Europe and Japan, are key importers of shrimp in the global market. An increase in the demand for shrimp products has led to the development of traceability regulations in developed countries. In this study, Pressure-State-Response (PSR) concepts are applied to evaluate the implementation responses of traceability regulations by exporting countries to meet the mandatory requirements of global markets. The evaluation was based on the prepared questions that were developed to allow comparison of specified indicators in the traceability regulations of importing countries and those of Vietnam. The examination showed that importing countries have introduced stringent traceability regulations via legislation and quality assurance practices. Regarding measures taken by exporting countries, Vietnam has introduced traceability regulations for both shrimp and other seafood products. Thus, Vietnamese regulations were found to satisfy the regulations of importing countries. However, the implementation of these regulations has faced a number of challenges, largely because of complicated of distribution channels, small-scale production, price discrimination and a lack capital to apply for international certificates.

This study investigated the effects of applications of international quality assurance certification at farm level on implementation of traceability along the shrimp supply chain with the evidences from Vietnam. Descriptive statistics was explored to compare in terms of products, information flows, financial efficiency, and willingness to implement traceability between certified and non-certified quality assurance shrimp farms. Binary logistics model was applied to examine the effects of applications of international quality assurance certification and other factors to the willingness to implement traceability of shrimp farmers. Found results showed that the applications of international quality assurance certification of shrimp farmers supported traceability of shrimp products among stakeholders in the supply chain. The certified farmers indicated a higher willingness to implement traceability. However, the profitability of those applications for shrimp farmers was not statistically found. The economics incentives, including farm-gate price differentiation and minimization of production costs should be carefully considered.