Background-The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of and the risk factors associated with progression of renal artery disease in individuals with atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis (ARAS). Methods and Results-Subjects with Ն1 ARAS were monitored with serial renal artery duplex scans. A total of 295 kidneys in 170 patients were monitored for a mean of 33 months. Overall, the cumulative incidence of ARAS progression was 35% at 3 years and 51% at 5 years. The 3-year cumulative incidence of renal artery disease progression stratified by baseline disease classification was 18%, 28%, and 49% for renal arteries initially classified as normal, Ͻ60% stenosis, and Ն60% stenosis, respectively (Pϭ0.03, log-rank test). There were only 9 renal artery occlusions during the study, all of which occurred in renal arteries having Ն60% stenosis at the examination before the detection of occlusion. A stepwise Cox proportional hazards model included 4 baseline factors that were significantly associated with the risk of renal artery disease progression during follow-up: systolic blood pressure Ն160 mm Hg (relative risk [RR]ϭ2.1; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.5), diabetes mellitus (RRϭ2.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.3), and high-grade (Ͼ60% stenosis or occlusion) disease in either the ipsilateral (RRϭ1.9; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.0) or contralateral (RRϭ1.7; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.8) renal artery. Conclusions-Although renal artery disease progression is a frequent occurrence, progression to total renal artery occlusion is not. The risk of renal artery disease progression is highest among individuals with preexisting high-grade stenosis in either renal artery, elevated systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus. (Circulation. 1998;98:2866-2872.)

The goal of this study was to determine the incidence of and risk factors for renal atrophy among kidneys with atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis (ARAS). Participants with at least one ARAS were followed prospectively with duplex scans performed every six months. Renal atrophy was defined as a reduction in renal length of greater than 1 cm. A total of 204 kidneys in 122 subjects were followed for a mean of 33 months. The two-year cumulative incidence (CI) of renal atrophy was 5.5%, 11.7%, and 20.8% in kidneys with a baseline renal artery disease classification of normal, <60% stenosis, and > or = 60% stenosis, respectively (P = 0.009, log rank test). Other baseline factors associated with a high risk of renal atrophy included a systolic blood pressure > 180 mm Hg (2-year CL = 35%, P = 0.01), a renal artery peak systolic velocity > 400 cm/second (2-year CI = 32%, P = 0.02), and a renal cortical end diastolic velocity < or = 5 cm/second (2-year CI = 29%, P = 0.046). The number of kidneys demonstrating atrophy per participant was correlated with elevations in the serum creatinine concentration (P = 0.03). In patients with ARAS, there is a significant risk of renal atrophy among kidneys exposed to elevated systolic blood pressure and among those with high-grade ARAS and low renal cortical blood flow velocity as assessed by renal duplex scanning. The occurrence of renal atrophy is well-correlated with changes in the serum creatinine concentration.

The data support the performance of a duplex scan either during surgery or before discharge from the hospital in addition to frequent surveillance for the first 6 months. Frequent surveillance is appropriate for lesions with less than 75% diameter reduction as long as they remain asymptomatic and without a significant reduction in the ankle-brachial index.

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