Decision support systems can play a role in improving the ability of decision makers to act as utility maximizers in crisis situations. This paper demonstrates the ability of one such decision support system, GENIE, to help decision makers maximize their objectives in a crisis negotiation. GENIE is described in detail, followed by the presentation of preliminary experimental results evaluating its effectiveness in crisis management and abatement. The experimental results show that GENIE users, as compared to non-users, are more likely to identify utility maximization as their primary objective and to achieve high utility scores. Experiments in which GENIE users participate are also more likely to end in agreement among thc parties, rather than in an outcome in which one of the parties opts out of the negotiation.
Decision makers, particularly in crisis situations, are often overwhelmed by the amount of information they must analyze in relatively short time periods and are often unable to identify optimal outcomes. This article argues that the employment of simulation techniques based on a sophisticated decision support system facilitates the identification of utility-maximizing strategies. The negotiation training model and its negotiation support system GENIE are discussed in this article, and preliminary results based on simulation runs are reported.
This paper reports on a series of experiments designed to assess the impact of grouping decision makers by level of cognitive complexity on the outcomes they attain in crisis negotiations. The participants-University of Maryland undergraduates who took roles in a simulated international hostage crisis-used a computer decision support system and a controlled network environment for communications. The goal of the experiments was to better understand the dynamics that lead certain types of groupings to have greater success in negotiations, and that lead certain groups of adversaries to achieve more mutually beneficial outcomes such as compromise and agreement. The findings point to a positive relationship between the level of homogeneity in cognitive complexity among decision makers and the achievement of positive outcomes in crisis negotiations.To what extent does the behavior of a group in a crisis negotiation, and the result of that negotiation, depend on the relative homogeneity of cognitive complexity
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