2018 marks the 100-year anniversary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, which killed ~50 million people worldwide. The severity of this pandemic resulted from a complex interplay between viral, host, and societal factors. Here, we review the viral, genetic and immune factors that contributed to the severity of the 1918 pandemic and discuss the implications for modern pandemic preparedness. We address unresolved questions of why the 1918 influenza H1N1 virus was more virulent than other influenza pandemics and why some people survived the 1918 pandemic and others succumbed to the infection. While current studies suggest that viral factors such as haemagglutinin and polymerase gene segments most likely contributed to a potent, dysregulated pro-inflammatory cytokine storm in victims of the pandemic, a shift in case-fatality for the 1918 pandemic toward young adults was most likely associated with the host's immune status. Lack of pre-existing virus-specific and/or cross-reactive antibodies and cellular immunity in children and young adults likely contributed to the high attack rate and rapid spread of the 1918 H1N1 virus. In contrast, lower mortality rate in in the older (>30 years) adult population points toward the beneficial effects of pre-existing cross-reactive immunity. In addition to the role of humoral and cellular immunity, there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that individual genetic differences, especially involving single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), contribute to differences in the severity of influenza virus infections. Co-infections with bacterial pathogens, and possibly measles and malaria, co-morbidities, malnutrition or obesity are also known to affect the severity of influenza disease, and likely influenced 1918 H1N1 disease severity and outcomes. Additionally, we also discuss the new challenges, such as changing population demographics, antibiotic resistance and climate change, which we will face in the context of any future influenza virus pandemic. In the last decade there has been a dramatic increase in the number of severe influenza virus strains entering the human population from animal reservoirs (including highly pathogenic H7N9 and H5N1 viruses). An understanding of past influenza virus pandemics and the lessons that we have learnt from them has therefore never been more pertinent.

COVID-19 is causing a major once-in-a-century global pandemic. The scientific and clinical community is in a race to define and develop effective preventions and treatments. The major features of disease are described but clinical trials have been hampered by competing interests, small scale, lack of defined patient cohorts and defined readouts. What is needed now is head-to-head comparison of existing drugs, testing of safety including in the background of predisposing chronic diseases, and the development of new and targeted preventions and treatments. This is most efficiently achieved using representative animal models of primary infection including in the background of chronic disease with validation of findings in primary human cells and tissues. We explore and discuss the diverse animal, cell and tissue models that are being used and developed and collectively recapitulate many critical aspects of disease manifestation in humans to develop and test new preventions and treatments.

Efforts are being made worldwide to understand the immune response to SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, including the impact of T cell immunity and cross-recognition with seasonal coronaviruses. Screening SARS-CoV-2 peptide pools revealed that the nucleocapsid (N) protein induced an immunodominant response in HLA-B7 + COVID-19-recovered individuals that was also detectable in unexposed donors. A single N-encoded epitope that was highly conserved across circulating coronaviruses drove this immunodominant response. In vitro peptide stimulation and crystal structure analyses revealed T cell-mediated cross-reactivity towards circulating OC43 and HKU-1 beta coronaviruses, but not 229E or NL63 alpha coronaviruses, due to different peptide conformations. TCR sequencing indicated cross-reactivity was driven by private T cell receptor repertoires with a bias for TRBV27 and a long CDR3β loop. Together, our findings demonstrate the basis of selective T cell cross-reactivity towards an immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 epitope and its homologues from seasonal coronaviruses, suggesting long-lived protective immunity.

The role of children in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains highly controversial. To address this issue, we performed a meta-analysis of the published literature on household SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters (n=213 from 12 countries). Only 8 (3.8%) transmission clusters were identified as having a paediatric index case. Asymptomatic index cases were associated with a lower secondary attack in contacts than symptomatic index cases (estimate risk ratio [RR], 0.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.09-0.29). To determine the susceptibility of children to household infections the secondary attack rate (SAR) in paediatric household contacts was assessed. The secondary attack rate in paediatric household contacts was lower than in adult household contacts (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42-0.91). These data have important implications for the ongoing management of the COVID-19 pandemic, including potential vaccine prioritization strategies.

Following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, numerous studies identified the striking link between diabetes mellitus and influenza disease severity. Typically, influenza virus is a self-limiting infection but in individuals who have a pre-existing chronic illness, such as diabetes mellitus, severe influenza can develop. Here, we discuss the latest clinical and experimental evidence for the role of diabetes in predisposing the host to severe influenza. We explore the possible mechanisms that underlie this synergy and highlight the, as yet, unexplored role that blood glucose oscillations may play in disease development. Diabetes is one of the world’s fastest growing chronic diseases and influenza virus represents a constant and pervasive threat to human health. It is therefore imperative that we understand how diabetes increases influenza severity in order to mitigate the burden of future influenza epidemics and pandemics.