This study investigates the effects on private saving rates of a number of policy and non-policy variables. The analysis covers the period 1968-1994. The empirical private saving model for Turkey is estimated. The findings support the hypothesis that private saving rates have strong inertia. The evidence indicates that government saving does not tend to crowd out private savings and the Ricardian equivalence does not hold strictly. Income level has a positive impact on private saving rate, and growth rate of income is not statistically significant. From a policy point of view, financial depth and development measures in Turkey suggest that countries with deeper financial systems tend to have higher private saving rates. Private credit and real interest rates try to capture the severity of the borrowing constraints and the degree of financial repression for Turkey. Moreover, the negative impact of life expectancy rate lends support to the life-cycle hypothesis. The precautionary motive for saving is supported by the findings that inflation captures the degree of macroeconomic volatility and has a positive impact on private saving in Turkey.
Workers' remittance flows to Turkey have dramatically increased since the 1960s, constituting a significant proportion of imports. The empirical evidence in this paper indicates that black market premium, interest rate differential, inflation rate, growth, home and host country income levels, and periods of military administration in Turkey have significantly affected these flows. Among them, the negatively significant effects of the black market premium, inflation, and a dummy for periods of military administration point at the importance of sound exchange rate policies and economic and political stability in attracting remittance flows. In addition, both investment and consumption-smoothing motives are observed, though the former of which appears more prevalent after the 1980s.
This paper analyzes whether and to what extent the inflow of FDI is affected before and after the occurence of a financial crisis in developing countries. The paper uses a semiparametric Generalized Partial Linear Models (GPLM) regression approach to check the appropriateness and effectiveness of financial crisis in the FDI regression model. The results indicate that FDI inflows decrease in the years after a financial crisis and an upturn in FDI inflows the year before a financial crisis hit the country. Santrauka Straipsnyje keliamas klausimas - kokia kryptimi ir kokiu stiprumu tiesioginiu užsienio investiciju (TUI) iplaukas i besivystančios šalies šeimininkes ūki veikia finansu. krize kapitala priimančioje šaly‐je. Autoriu formuluojamoms hipotezems patvirtinti ar paneigti naudojamas semiparametres regresijos modelis. Gauti rezultatai rodo, kad TUI turi tendencija mažeti ne tik finansu. krizes metais. Būdamos inertiškos, TUI mažeja net finansu. krizei besivystančioje šalyje pasibaigus.
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