Aims  The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70 years in four geographical risk regions. Methods and results  Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models for estimating CVD risk (CVD mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) were derived in individuals aged over 65 without pre-existing atherosclerotic CVD from the Cohort of Norway (28 503 individuals, 10 089 CVD events). Models included age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Four geographical risk regions were defined based on country-specific CVD mortality rates. Models were recalibrated to each region using region-specific estimated CVD incidence rates and risk factor distributions. For external validation, we analysed data from 6 additional study populations {338 615 individuals, 33 219 CVD validation cohorts, C-indices ranged between 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61–0.65] and 0.67 (0.64–0.69)}. Regional calibration of expected-vs.-observed risks was satisfactory. For given risk factor profiles, there was substantial variation across the four risk regions in the estimated 10-year CVD event risk. Conclusions  The competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-OP model was derived, recalibrated, and externally validated to estimate 5- and 10-year CVD risk in older adults (aged 70 years or older) in four geographical risk regions. These models can be used for communicating the risk of CVD and potential benefit from risk factor treatment and may facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in CVD risk management in older persons.

The previously reported excess cardiovascular risk among immigrants from the Indian subcontinent was supported in this study. We also showed that immigrants from the former Yugoslavian countries had a higher total 10-year risk of cardiovascular events than other ethnic groups. This study adds information about ethnic groups in Norway which needs to be addressed in further research and targeted prevention strategies.

BackgroundImmigrants to Norway from South Asia and Former Yugoslavia have high levels of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Yet, the incidence of CVD among immigrants in Norway has never been studied. Our aim was to study the burden of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke among ethnic groups in Norway.MethodsWe studied the whole Norwegian population (n = 2 637 057) aged 35–64 years during 1994–2009. The Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) project provided information about all AMI and stroke hospital stays for this period, as well as deaths outside hospital through linkage to the Cause of Death Registry. The direct standardization method was used to estimate age standardized AMI and stroke event rates for immigrants and ethnic Norwegians. Rate ratios (RR) with ethnic Norwegians as reference were calculated using Poisson regression.ResultsThe highest risk of AMI was seen in South Asians (men RR = 2.27; 95 % CI 2.08–2.49; women RR = 2.10; 95 % CI 1.76–2.51) while the lowest was seen in East Asians (RR = 0.38 in both men (95 % CI 0.25–0.58) and women (95 % CI 0.18–0.79)). Immigrants from Former Yugoslavia and Central Asia also had increased risk of AMI compared to ethnic Norwegians. South Asians had increased risk of stroke (men RR = 1.26; 95 % CI 1.10–1.44; women RR = 1.58; 95 % CI 1.32–1.90), as did men from Former Yugoslavia, Sub-Saharan Africa and women from Southeast Asia.ConclusionsPreventive measures should be aimed at reducing the excess numbers of CVD among immigrants from South Asia and Former Yugoslavia.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2412-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Further studies with exposure data and confounder control are needed to address whether the observed excesses of pleural cancer and AML can be attributed to offshore work.