Spring frost can be a limiting factor in sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) production. Rising temperatures in spring force the development of buds, whereby their vulnerability to freezing temperatures continuously increases. With the beginning of blossom, flowers can resist only light frosts without any significant damage. In this study, we investigated the risk of spring frost damages during cherry blossom for historical and future climate conditions at two different sites in NE (Berlin) and SW Germany (Geisenheim). Two phenological models, developed on the basis of phenological observations at the experimental sweet cherry orchard in Berlin-Dahlem and validated for endodormancy release and for warmer climate conditions (already published), were used to calculate the beginning of cherry blossom in Geisenheim, 1951-2015 (external model validation). Afterwards, on the basis of a statistical regionalisation model WETTREG (RCP 8.5), the frequency of frost during cherry blossom was calculated at both sites for historical (1971-2000) and future climate conditions (2011-2100). From these data, we derived the final flower damage, defined as the percentage of frozen flowers due to single or multiple frost events during blossom. The results showed that rising temperatures in this century can premature the beginning of cherry blossom up to 17 days at both sites, independent of the used phenological model. The frequency and strength of frost was characterised by a high temporal and local variability. For both sites, no significant increase in frost frequency and frost damage during blossom was found. In Geisenheim, frost damages significantly decreased from the middle of the twenty-first century. This study additionally emphasises the importance of reliable phenological models which not only work for current but also for changed climate conditions and at different sites. The date of endodormancy release should always be a known parameter in chilling/forcing models.

Spring frost is a significant production hazard in nearly all temperate fruit-growing regions. Sweet cherries are among the first fruit varieties starting their development in spring and therefore highly susceptible to late frost. Temperatures at which injuries are likely to occur are widely published, but their origin and determination methods are not well documented. In this study, a standardized method was used to investigate critical frost temperatures for the sweet cherry cultivar 'Summit' under controlled conditions. Twigs were sampled at four development stages ("side green," "green tip," "open cluster," "full bloom") and subjected to three frost temperatures (-2.5, -5.0, -10.0 °C). The main advantage of this method, compared to other approaches, was that the exposition period and the time interval required to reach the target temperature were always constant (2 h). Furthermore, then, the twigs were placed in a climate chamber until full bloom, before the examination of the flowers and not further developed buds started. For the first two sampling stages (side green, green tip), the number of buds found in open cluster, "first white," and full bloom at the evaluation date decreased with the strength of the frost treatment. The flower organs showed different levels of cold hardiness and became more vulnerable in more advanced development stages. In this paper, we developed four empirical functions which allow calculating possible frost damages on sweet cherry buds or flowers at the investigated development stages. These equations can help farmers to estimate possible frost damages on cherry buds due to frost events. However, it is necessary to validate the critical temperatures obtained in laboratory with some field observations.

Winter dormancy is still a “black box” in phenological models, because it evades simple observation. This study presents the first step in the identification of suitable metabolites which could indicate the timing and length of dormancy phases for the sweet cherry cultivar ‘Summit’. Global metabolite profiling detected 445 named metabolites in flower buds, which can be assigned to different substance groups such as amino acids, carbohydrates, phytohormones, lipids, nucleotides, peptides and some secondary metabolites. During the phases of endo- and ecodormancy, the energy metabolism in the form of glycolysis and the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle was shut down to a minimum. However, the beginning of ontogenetic development was closely related to the up-regulation of the carbohydrate metabolism and thus to the generation of energy for the growth and development of the sweet cherry buds. From the 445 metabolites found in cherry buds, seven were selected which could be suitable markers for the ecodormancy phase, whose duration is limited by the date of endodormancy release (t1) and the beginning of ontogenetic development (t1*). With the exception of abscisic acid (ABA), which has been proven to control bud dormancy, all of these metabolites show nearly constant intensity during this phase.

Here we report on metabolites found in a targeted profiling of ‘Summit’ flower buds for nine years, which could be indicators for the timing of endodormancy release (t1) and beginning of ontogenetic development (t1*). Investigated metabolites included chrysin, arabonic acid, pentose acid, sucrose, abscisic acid (ABA), and abscisic acid glucose ester (ABA-GE). Chrysin and water content showed an almost parallel course between leaf fall and t1*. After ‘swollen bud’, water content raised from ~60 to ~80% at open cluster, while chrysin content decreased and lost its function as an acetylcholinesterase inhibitor. Both parameters can be suitable indicators for t1*. Arabonic acid showed a clear increase after t1*. Pentose acid would be a suitable metabolite to identify t1 and t1*, but would not allow describing the ecodormancy phase, because of its continuously low value during this time. Sucrose reached a maximum during ecodormancy and showed a significant correlation with air temperature, which confirms its cryoprotective role in this phase. The ABA content showed maximum values during endodormancy and decreased during ecodormancy, reaching 50% of its content t1 at t1*. It appears to be the key metabolite to define the ecodormancy phase. The ABA-GE was present at all stages and phases and was much higher than the ABA content and is a readily available storage pool in cherry buds.