I construct a novel measure of policy preferences of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as perceived in public. This measure is based on newspaper and financial media coverage of 130 FOMC members serving during 1960-2015. Narratives reveal that about 70 percent of these FOMC members are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are perceived as swingers, switching between types, or remained an unknown quantity to markets. Hawk and Dove perceptions capture "true" tendencies as expressed in preferred rates, forecasts and dissents of these FOMC members well. At the FOMC level the composition of hawks and doves varies significantly, featuring slow-and fast-switching hawkish and dovish regimes, due to the rotation of voting rights each year, members' turnover and swings in preferences.

We ask whether uncertainty about interest rates is important for economic activity. Effects of interest rate uncertainty on the economy are examined through the lens of a small VAR where the assumption that uncertainty can affect real activity contemporaneously but not vice versa is indeed in line with the data. Our measure of uncertainty stems from professional forecasts of short-and long-term interest rates and accounts for both disagreement among forecasters and the perceived variability of future aggregate shocks. Studying a panel of countries we find that subjective interest rate uncertainty has large, negative and persistent effects on the economy.

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We ask whether uncertainty about interest rates is important for economic activity. Effects of interest rate uncertainty on the economy are examined through the lens of a small VAR where the assumption that uncertainty can affect real activity contemporaneously but not vice versa is indeed in line with the data. Our measure of uncertainty stems from professional forecasts of short-and long-term interest rates and accounts for both disagreement among forecasters and the perceived variability of future aggregate shocks. Studying a panel of countries we find that subjective interest rate uncertainty has large, negative and persistent effects on the economy.

We thank Jonathan Rose for his discussion and Alan Blinder, Yuri Gorodnichenko, Rob Roy McGregor, David Papell and participants at the Shadow Open Market Committee (SOMC) 2018Fall Meeting, at the SOMC 2019 Conference, at the seminar at the Federal Reserve of Atlanta,University of Houston and UNC Charlotte for comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Banque de France and the National Bureau of Economic Research.N BER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.