Japanese officials commonly claim that their country retains and uses capital punishment because it deters homicide. Although this claim is contested, few empirical studies have been done to assess the empirical reality. This paper uses data not previously available (monthly homicide statistics obtained from Japan’s National Police Agency) to examine whether Japan’s death penalty deters homicide or robbery-homicide. Using vector autoregression models, it concludes that neither death sentences nor executions deter homicide or robbery-homicide.

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Self-organizing state space model, Monte Carlo particle filter, Parameter estimation, Simplex Nelder-Mead algorithm,

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