Background Aging increases the disease burden because of an increase in disease prevalence and mortality among older individuals. This could influence the perception of the social burden of different diseases and treatment prioritization within national healthcare services. Cancer is a disease with a high disease burden in Japan; however, the age-specific frequency and age-specific mortality rates differ according to site. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between the aging of the Japanese society and the disease burden by comparing the features of three cancers with different age-specific frequency rates in Japan. Furthermore, we made projections for the future to determine how the social burden of these cancers will change. Methods We calculated the social burden of breast, lung, and prostate cancers by adding the direct, morbidity, and mortality costs. Estimates were made using the cost of illness (COI) method. For future projections, approximate curves were fitted for mortality rate, number of hospital admissions per population, number of outpatient visits per population, and average length of hospital stay according to sex and age. Results The COI of breast, lung, and prostate cancers in 2017 was 903.7, 1,547.6, and 390.8 billion yen, respectively. Although the COI of breast and prostate cancers was projected to increase, that of lung cancer COI was expected to decrease. In 2017, the average age at death was 68.8, 76.8, and 80.7 years for breast, lung, and prostate cancers, respectively. Conclusions Patients with breast cancer die earlier than those with other types of cancer. The COI of breast cancer (“young cancer”) was projected to increase slightly because of an increase in mortality costs, whereas that of prostate cancer (“aged cancer”) was projected to increase because of an increase in direct costs. The COI of lung cancer (“aging cancer”) was expected to decrease in 2020, despite the increase in deaths, as the impact of the decrease in human capital value outweighed that of the increase in deaths. Our findings will help prioritize future policymaking, such as cancer control research grants.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the health sector reform toward 2040 of Japan as a super-aged society.Design/methodology/approachThis paper discusses the current healthcare policies adopted in Japan and projects the challenges in future as a super-aged society.FindingsThrough Japanese experiences, it is considered that Community-based Integrated Care System is useful, which takes into account the perspective of health care users. Being a super-aged society, it is essential for Japan to have more consensus by further removing obstacles, and paying attention to the change of paradigm and the purpose of care.Originality/valueBased on the case of Japan, this paper serves as a reference for other East Asian countries, which would sooner or later encounter the similar situation of becoming super-aged societies in the 21st century.

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to clarify the social burden of Japan’s three major diseases including Long-term Care (LTC) burden.Design/methodology/approachA modification of the Cost of Illness (COI)—the Comprehensive-COI (C-COI) was utilized to estimate three major diseases: cancer, heart disease, and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD). The C-COI consists of five parts: medical direct cost, morbidity cost, mortality cost, formal LTC cost and informal LTC cost. The latter was calculated by two approaches: opportunity cost approach (OC) and replacement approach (RA), which assumed that informal caregivers were substituted by paid caregivers.FindingsThe C-COI of cancer, heart disease and CVD in 2017 amounted to 10.5 trillion JPY, 5.2 trillion JPY, and 6.7 trillion JPY, respectively (110 JPY= 1 US$). The mortality cost was preponderant for cancer (61 percent) and heart disease (47.9 percent); while the informal LTC cost was preponderant for CVD (27.5 percent). The informal LTC cost of the CVD in OC amounted to 1.8 trillion JPY; while the RA amounted to 3.0 trillion JPY.Social implicationsThe LTC burden accounted for a significant proportion of the social burden of chronic diseases. The informal care was maintained by unsustainable structures such as the elderly providing care for the elderly. This result can affect health policy decisions.Originality/valueThe C-COI is more appropriate for estimating the social burden of chronic diseases including the LTC burden and can be calculated using governmental statistics.

Discharge to home is considered appropriate as a treatment goal for diseases that often leave disabilities such as cerebral infarction. Previous studies showed differences in risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality and readmission rates; however, studies assessing the rate of hospital-to-home transition are limited. We developed and calculated the hospital standardized home-transition ratio (HSHR) using Japanese administrative claims data from 2016–2020 to measure the quality of in-hospital care for cerebral infarction. Overall, 24,529 inpatients at 35 hospitals were included. All variables used in the analyses were associated with transition to another hospital or facility for inpatients, and evaluation of the HSHR model showed good predictive ability with c-statistics (area under curve, 0.73 standard deviation; 95% confidence interval, 0.72–0.73). All HSHRs of each consecutive year were significantly correlated. HSHRs for cerebral infarction can be calculated using Japanese administrative claims data. It was found that there is a need for support for low HSHR hospitals because hospitals with high/low HSHR were likely to produce the same results in the following year. HSHRs can be used as a new quality indicator of in-hospital care and may contribute to assessing and improving the quality of care.

Previous studies indicated that optimal care for pneumonia during hospitalization might reduce the risk of in-hospital mortality and subsequent readmission. This study was a retrospective observational study using Japanese administrative claims data from April 2010 to March 2019. We analyzed data from 167,120 inpatients with pneumonia ≥15 years old in the benchmarking project managed by All Japan Hospital Association. Hospital-level risk-adjusted ratios of 30-day readmission for pneumonia were calculated using multivariable logistic regression analyses. The Spearman’s correlation coefficient was used to assess the correlation in each consecutive period. In the analysis using complete 9-year data including 54,756 inpatients, the hospital standardized readmission ratios (HSRRs) showed wide variation among hospitals and improvement trend (r = −0.18, p = 0.03). In the analyses of trends in each consecutive period, the HSRRS were positively correlated between ‘2010–2012’ and ‘2013–2015’ (r = 0.255, p = 0.010), and ‘2013–2015’ and ‘2016–2018’ (r = 0.603, p < 0.001). This study denoted the HSRRs for pneumonia could be calculated using Japanese administrative claims data. The HSRRs significantly varied among hospitals with comparable case-mix, and could relatively evaluate the quality of preventing readmission including long-term trends. The HSRRs can be used as yet another measure to help improve quality of care over time if other indicators are examined in parallel.